# No Pain, No Grain: Ukraine’s Export Crisis Isn’t Over Yet | Georgetown Security Studies Review |
    Georgetown University

> Georgetown Security Studies Review argues Ukraine's grain export crisis persists because Houthi strikes on Red Sea shipping add risk, cost and transit time for Ukrainian cargoes bound for China. Russian shipments face less exposure due to an understanding with the Houthis, while Russian Black Sea militarization continues to disrupt Ukrainian trade.

- Date: 2024-05-05 · published 2024-05-05T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: geopolitics · region Black Sea · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/17031-no-pain-no-grain-ukraine-s-export-crisis-isn-t-over-yet-georgetown-security
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Ocean Grain Freight](https://feedsoft.ai/c/OCEANFRT.md)

## Why it matters

Higher Red Sea risk premiums and disrupted Ukrainian shipments reduce grain export flows from the Black Sea and support higher freight and wheat or corn prices in importing markets.

## Read by commodity

- CORN: bullish ▲
- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- OCEANFRT: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2026-02-19 | [Ukraine's grain, iron ore exports hit by Russian strikes on ports this winter \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14135-ukraine-s-grain-iron-ore-exports-hit-by-russian-strikes-on-ports-this-winter.md) | +1.8% | +3.6% |
| WHEAT | 2026-08-01 | [Ukraine's Black Sea ports lose a third of grain export capacity, farmers' union says](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14098-ukraine-s-black-sea-ports-lose-a-third-of-grain-export-capacity-farmers-union.md) | -0.8% | +3.0% |
| WHEAT | 2023-08-03 | [Ukraine struggles to export its grain — as Russia repeatedly strikes its ports : NPR](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14374-ukraine-struggles-to-export-its-grain-as-russia-repeatedly-strikes-its-ports-npr.md) | +0.5% | -6.9% |
| WHEAT | 2025-12-17 | [Ukraine's grain exports curbed as Russian strikes shut terminals](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14151-ukraine-s-grain-exports-curbed-as-russian-strikes-shut-terminals.md) | +0.8% | +0.7% |
| WHEAT | 2023-06-02 | [Ukraine has 'plan B' to continue exports if grain deal collapses, minister says \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14385-ukraine-has-plan-b-to-continue-exports-if-grain-deal-collapses-minister-says.md) | -3.8% | +7.5% |
| CORN | 2026-02-19 | [Ukraine's grain, iron ore exports hit by Russian strikes on ports this winter \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14135-ukraine-s-grain-iron-ore-exports-hit-by-russian-strikes-on-ports-this-winter.md) | +0.6% | +7.4% |
| CORN | 2026-08-01 | [Ukraine's Black Sea ports lose a third of grain export capacity, farmers' union says](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14098-ukraine-s-black-sea-ports-lose-a-third-of-grain-export-capacity-farmers-union.md) | -0.1% | +8.6% |
| CORN | 2023-08-03 | [Ukraine struggles to export its grain — as Russia repeatedly strikes its ports : NPR](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14374-ukraine-struggles-to-export-its-grain-as-russia-repeatedly-strikes-its-ports-npr.md) | -0.6% | -3.9% |

## Sources

- gssr.georgetown.edu: https://gssr.georgetown.edu/the-forum/regions/eurasia/no-pain-no-grain-ukraines-export-crisis-isnt-over-yet/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.