# Trade Tracker: A turning point in the Red Sea shipping crisis? | NatWest Corporates and Institutions

> NatWest's Trade Tracker says a Israel-Hamas ceasefire may ease Red Sea shipping problems and potentially boost trade. It notes Red Sea rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope has sharply cut traffic through Suez and Bab el-Mandeb. The report also flags uncertainty from new U.S. tariff policy, which it expects to weigh on 2025 trade volumes.

- Date: 2025-02-18 · published 2025-02-18T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: geopolitics · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/16967-trade-tracker-a-turning-point-in-the-red-sea-shipping-crisis-natwest-corporates
- Commodities: [Ocean Grain Freight](https://feedsoft.ai/c/OCEANFRT.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md)

## Why it matters

A Red Sea reopening would release vessel capacity and lower freight costs on Asia-Europe routes. Tariff risk to trade volumes could reduce demand for feed grains and oilseeds, adding downside pressure to prices.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: bearish ▼
- CORN: bearish ▼
- OCEANFRT: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SOY | 2017-01-20 | [Boeing and beans on China's blacklist if US trade tensions worsen](https://feedsoft.ai/events/72862-boeing-and-beans-on-china-s-blacklist-if-us-trade-tensions-worsen.md) | -1.9% | -2.5% |
| SOY | 2022-03-29 | [Grains Remain Under Selling Pressure as Trading Closes](https://feedsoft.ai/events/7629-grains-remain-under-selling-pressure-as-trading-closes.md) | -3.7% | +2.5% |
| SOY | 2017-03-28 | [Pork and beans could take brunt of China-U.S. trade dispute](https://feedsoft.ai/events/71849-pork-and-beans-could-take-brunt-of-china-u-s-trade-dispute.md) | -3.4% | -1.7% |
| SOY | 2022-02-27 | [Ukraine crisis: Agri commodities prices plunge in global markets as supply fears recede - The HinduBusinessLine](https://feedsoft.ai/events/8528-ukraine-crisis-agri-commodities-prices-plunge-in-global-markets-as-supply-fears.md) | +5.4% | +7.5% |
| SOY | 2020-05-27 | [Yuan slumps to 9-mth low on Sino-U.S. tensions, corporate dollar demand \| Financial Post](https://feedsoft.ai/events/53377-yuan-slumps-to-9-mth-low-on-sino-u-s-tensions-corporate-dollar-demand-financial.md) | +0.4% | +3.3% |
| CORN | 2019-03-06 | [Boston Herald - Boston news, sports, politics, opinion, entertainment, weather and obituaries - Romanian Black Sea port finally receives its first shipment of Ukrainian grain amid food crisis](https://feedsoft.ai/events/59945-boston-herald-boston-news-sports-politics-opinion-entertainment-weather-and.md) | -1.7% | -1.5% |
| CORN | 2022-06-29 | [Ships going dark: Russia’s grain smuggling in the Black Sea](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14482-ships-going-dark-russia-s-grain-smuggling-in-the-black-sea.md) | +1.2% | -16.3% |
| CORN | 2017-01-20 | [Boeing and beans on China's blacklist if US trade tensions worsen](https://feedsoft.ai/events/72862-boeing-and-beans-on-china-s-blacklist-if-us-trade-tensions-worsen.md) | +0.4% | +1.9% |

## Sources

- natwest.com: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/trade-tracker-a-turning-point-in-the-red-sea-shipping-crisis.html

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.