# Shift to South America and consequences for vessel demand – News – SSY

> Soybean exports from the US are expected to be the dry bulk trade most affected by the US-China trade war. A 90-day tariff reprieve, with US tariffs lowered to 30% and Chinese tariffs to 10%, ends in mid-August, just before the seasonal ramp-up of US soybean exports. Chinese buyers are likely to extend their shift toward South American origins, mainly Brazil.

- Date: 2025-05-12 · published 2025-05-12T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: trade · region US · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/16940-shift-to-south-america-and-consequences-for-vessel-demand-news-ssy
- Commodities: [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Ocean Grain Freight](https://feedsoft.ai/c/OCEANFRT.md)

## Why it matters

Replacing US cargoes with shorter-haul South American supply reduces tonne-mile demand, especially for Panamax and Kamsarmax vessels, which weighs on ocean freight rates. US soybean export competitiveness also weakens while the tariff uncertainty lasts.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: bearish ▼
- OCEANFRT: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SOY | 2025-02-26 | [CBOT soybeans fall on South America harvest, tariff worries — TradingView News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/26108-cbot-soybeans-fall-on-south-america-harvest-tariff-worries-tradingview-news.md) | -4.6% | -2.9% |
| SOY | 2017-03-22 | [Soybeans mostly lower, corn down, watching South America - Brownfield Ag News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10726-soybeans-mostly-lower-corn-down-watching-south-america-brownfield-ag-news.md) | -2.9% | -5.1% |
| SOY | 2019-08-23 | [Soybeans, corn sink on demand concerns - Brownfield Ag News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/57622-soybeans-corn-sink-on-demand-concerns-brownfield-ag-news.md) | +0.0% | +3.1% |
| SOY | 2026-01-30 | [China Turns to South America for Soybeans as U.S. Corn, Sorghum Exports Gain Momentum - RFD](https://feedsoft.ai/events/21112-china-turns-to-south-america-for-soybeans-as-u-s-corn-sorghum-exports-gain.md) | +3.7% | +7.9% |
| SOY | 2024-01-30 | [Supply and demand outlook for U.S. soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/events/32156-supply-and-demand-outlook-for-u-s-soybeans.md) | +0.2% | -5.3% |

## Sources

- ssyglobal.com: https://www.ssyglobal.com/news/research/shift-to-south-america-and-consequences-for-vessel-demand

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.