# Latin America’s commodity exporters face El Niño, costly freight and a shifting US trade picture | World Ports Organization

> El Niño is firmly established with Oceanic Niño Index above 2, and Kpler expects it to last at least until February. Brazil's Mato Grosso, producing 29% of its soybeans, typically sees yield falls of 4-5% in El Niño years, while Panama Canal daily transits were cut from 36 to 32.

- Date: 2026-10-06 · published 2026-10-06T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Brazil · magnitude high
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/16758-latin-america-s-commodity-exporters-face-el-nino-costly-freight-and-a-shifting
- Commodities: [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybean Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBM.md), [Ocean Grain Freight](https://feedsoft.ai/c/OCEANFRT.md)

## Why it matters

Potential Brazilian soybean yield losses and record Southeast Asian feed corn imports tighten global supply and support prices. Canal restrictions add freight costs for North American exporters.

## Read by commodity

- SBM: bullish ▲
- SOY: bullish ▲
- CORN: bullish ▲
- OCEANFRT: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SOY | 2026-08-28 | [Black Sea gridlock, a building El Niño and the US-China soybean gamble \| World Ports Organization](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14092-black-sea-gridlock-a-building-el-nino-and-the-us-china-soybean-gamble-world.md) | +4.0% | +5.0% |
| SOY | 2024-02-07 | [Shift from El Nino to La Nina portends rains in Asia, dryness in Americas \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/31585-shift-from-el-nino-to-la-nina-portends-rains-in-asia-dryness-in-americas-reuters.md) | -1.1% | -4.9% |
| SOY | 2021-06-25 | [Weather, exports driving factors in commodity markets \| Feed Strategy](https://feedsoft.ai/events/46664-weather-exports-driving-factors-in-commodity-markets-feed-strategy.md) | +5.5% | +2.2% |
| SOY | 2024-02-19 | [The El Niño weather pattern shapes 2024 commodity price forecast](https://feedsoft.ai/events/31589-the-el-nino-weather-pattern-shapes-2024-commodity-price-forecast.md) | -3.1% | +1.3% |
| SOY | 2023-08-07 | [El Niño: Anticipatory Action and Response Plan, August-December 2023 - Mitigating the expected impacts of El Niño-induced climate extremes on agriculture and food security - World \| ReliefWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34472-el-nino-anticipatory-action-and-response-plan-august-december-2023-mitigating.md) | -3.0% | -6.1% |
| CORN | 2019-04-30 | [GIEWS Update – Central America \|KORE - Knowledge Sharing Platform on Resilience\| Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations](https://feedsoft.ai/events/59510-giews-update-central-america-kore-knowledge-sharing-platform-on-resilience-food.md) | +0.9% | +8.9% |
| CORN | 2024-02-07 | [Shift from El Nino to La Nina portends rains in Asia, dryness in Americas \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/31585-shift-from-el-nino-to-la-nina-portends-rains-in-asia-dryness-in-americas-reuters.md) | -1.1% | +0.3% |
| CORN | 2021-06-25 | [Weather, exports driving factors in commodity markets \| Feed Strategy](https://feedsoft.ai/events/46664-weather-exports-driving-factors-in-commodity-markets-feed-strategy.md) | +5.6% | -5.6% |

## Sources

- worldports.org: https://www.worldports.org/latin-americas-commodity-exporters-face-el-nino-costly-freight-and-a-shifting-us-trade-picture/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.