# A Tale of Two RINs – Digging Deeper | Stillwater Associates

> D4 RIN generation is growing faster than the D4 renewable volume obligation due to continued expansion of US renewable diesel production. Analysis is updated with the latest EIA and EPA data, and the trend is expected to continue into 2024 as more capacity completes.

- Date: 2023-11-29 · published 2023-11-29T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: policy · region US · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/15259-a-tale-of-two-rins-digging-deeper-stillwater-associates
- Commodities: [Soybean Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBO.md), [ULSD / Diesel](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DIESEL.md)

## Why it matters

Rising D4 RIN supply pressures RIN prices and reduces the incentive to crush for biofuel, which weighs on soybean oil demand expectations. Growing renewable diesel output keeps soybean oil feedstock demand firm.

## Read by commodity

- SBO: bearish ▼
- DIESEL: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SBO | 2023-01-13 | [12 American Soybean Association representatives testify at EPA public hearing on RFS](https://feedsoft.ai/events/15343-12-american-soybean-association-representatives-testify-at-epa-public-hearing.md) | -1.6% | -9.4% |
| SBO | 2025-03-24 | [Stop Promoting Imported Feedstocks \| Illinois Soybean Association](https://feedsoft.ai/events/15138-stop-promoting-imported-feedstocks-illinois-soybean-association.md) | +3.3% | +12.5% |
| SBO | 2022-04-13 | [New relaxations of blending mandates could reduce demand](https://feedsoft.ai/events/15405-new-relaxations-of-blending-mandates-could-reduce-demand.md) | +3.8% | +5.2% |
| SBO | 2023-02-17 | [American Soybean Association tells EPA to affirm its commitment to a strong RFS](https://feedsoft.ai/events/15329-american-soybean-association-tells-epa-to-affirm-its-commitment-to-a-strong-rfs.md) | +0.9% | -6.3% |
| SBO | 2017-10-05 | [EPA Action Would Break President’s Promises on Protecting the RFS - American Soybean Association](https://feedsoft.ai/events/68340-epa-action-would-break-president-s-promises-on-protecting-the-rfs-american.md) | -0.2% | +5.8% |
| DIESEL | 2023-10-19 | [US oil refiners crank out diesel, further squeezing margins for gasoline](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33711-us-oil-refiners-crank-out-diesel-further-squeezing-margins-for-gasoline.md) | -4.4% | -8.6% |
| DIESEL | 2026-10-04 | [OPEC+ agrees to keep November oil output targets steady](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17059-opec-agrees-to-keep-november-oil-output-targets-steady.md) | +5.2% | +3.3% |
| DIESEL | 2026-10-28 | [Northwest European diesel margins hold steady amid mixed signals By Investing.com](https://feedsoft.ai/events/277-northwest-european-diesel-margins-hold-steady-amid-mixed-signals-by-investing.md) | -4.2% | — |

## Sources

- stillwaterassociates.com: https://stillwaterassociates.com/a-tale-of-two-rins-digging-deeper/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.