# Something’s Gotta Give – Five Ways the Market Could React to Surging Renewable Diesel Output, RIN Generation – Prometheus Institute

> RBN Energy analysis says renewable diesel production has surged in 2023, well above EPA blending mandates. The surge has produced excess Renewable Identification Numbers and eroded renewable diesel margins. Production is expected to rise further in 2024, and the analysis outlines five possible market adjustments.

- Date: 2023-12-13 · published 2023-12-13T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: policy · region US · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/15256-something-s-gotta-give-five-ways-the-market-could-react-to-surging-renewable
- Commodities: [Soybean Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBO.md)

## Why it matters

Shrinking renewable diesel margins and RIN oversupply could reduce plant run rates and soybean oil feedstock demand. Lower RIN prices would also weaken the economics of biofuel feedstock purchases.

## Read by commodity

- SBO: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SBO | 2022-05-13 | [Southeast region cuts palm oil export tax. How will it impact the biodiesel market?](https://feedsoft.ai/events/15824-southeast-region-cuts-palm-oil-export-tax-how-will-it-impact-the-biodiesel.md) | -5.0% | -5.4% |
| SBO | 2023-10-19 | [US oil refiners crank out diesel, further squeezing margins for gasoline](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33711-us-oil-refiners-crank-out-diesel-further-squeezing-margins-for-gasoline.md) | -5.0% | +0.3% |
| SBO | 2023-12-28 | [Renewable diesel plans unrealistic: analyst \| The Western Producer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/15250-renewable-diesel-plans-unrealistic-analyst-the-western-producer.md) | -0.8% | -2.9% |
| SBO | 2025-05-26 | [Soybeans: how the possible increase in export taxes impacts the market and the situation that could "force" it – Universidad Austral](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13862-soybeans-how-the-possible-increase-in-export-taxes-impacts-the-market-and-the.md) | -2.4% | +3.4% |
| SBO | 2024-01-30 | [Renewable biodiesel and soybean prices: What to expect](https://feedsoft.ai/events/15244-renewable-biodiesel-and-soybean-prices-what-to-expect.md) | +0.0% | -1.4% |

## Sources

- prometheus.org: https://prometheus.org/2023/12/13/somethings-gotta-give-five-ways-the-market-could-react-to-surging-renewable-diesel-output-rin-generation/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.