# COMMODITIES 2025: US biomass-based diesel market faces cost, regulatory challenges | S&P Global

> S&P Global analysts expect US renewable diesel output to rise 13% in 2025, supported by the Clean Fuel Production Credit, while US biodiesel production is forecast to fall about 5.6% to 1.538 billion gallons. The credit pays up to $1 per gallon for non-SAF fuel and $1.75 per gallon for SAF, tied to carbon intensity and wage standards, and expires in 2027.

- Date: 2024-12-30 · published 2024-12-30T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: policy · region US · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/15157-commodities-2025-us-biomass-based-diesel-market-faces-cost-regulatory
- Commodities: [Soybean Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBO.md), [ULSD / Diesel](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DIESEL.md)

## Why it matters

Shifting output from fatty acid methyl ester biodiesel to renewable diesel changes demand for soybean oil and other feedstocks, and the credit is expected to cut imports, which tends to support domestic feedstock prices.

## Read by commodity

- SBO: neutral
- DIESEL: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SBO | 2025-02-01 | [Policy Priorities for Biomass-Based Diesel](https://feedsoft.ai/events/15151-policy-priorities-for-biomass-based-diesel.md) | -0.9% | +0.0% |
| SBO | 2024-12-12 | [2025 US Biodiesel Market: 2024 Ends Strong As Uncertainty Remains](https://feedsoft.ai/events/15163-2025-us-biodiesel-market-2024-ends-strong-as-uncertainty-remains.md) | -2.8% | +0.7% |
| SBO | 2017-10-24 | [NBB Holds Firm In Its Request for 2.5 Billion Gallons of Biomass-Based Diesel, 4.75 Billion Gallons of Advanced Biofuels - Fuels Market News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/68343-nbb-holds-firm-in-its-request-for-2-5-billion-gallons-of-biomass-based-diesel-4.md) | +0.1% | -2.0% |
| SBO | 2019-07-29 | [Federal Register
       :: 
      Renewable Fuel Standard Program: Standards for 2020 and Biomass-Based Diesel Volume for 2021, Response to the Remand of the 2016 Standards, and Other Changes](https://feedsoft.ai/events/57954-federal-register-renewable-fuel-standard-program-standards-for-2020-and-biomass.md) | -1.0% | -0.5% |
| SBO | 2021-06-23 | [Biomass-Based Diesel: Renewable Diesel Outperforms But Feeds](https://feedsoft.ai/events/46444-biomass-based-diesel-renewable-diesel-outperforms-but-feeds.md) | +3.7% | +6.4% |
| DIESEL | 2018-08-08 | [Brazil Bases Diesel Price Formula on S&P Global Platts Price Assessments - Aug 8, 2018](https://feedsoft.ai/events/63729-brazil-bases-diesel-price-formula-on-s-and-p-global-platts-price-assessments.md) | -1.8% | +3.2% |
| DIESEL | 2020-02-05 | [U.S. biomass-based diesel tax credit renewed through 2022 in government spending bill - Mansfield Energy](https://feedsoft.ai/events/54471-u-s-biomass-based-diesel-tax-credit-renewed-through-2022-in-government-spending.md) | +2.6% | -2.6% |
| DIESEL | 2026-06-01 | [Renewable fuel credit prices hit records on U.S. biofuel mandates, oil market volatility](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18888-renewable-fuel-credit-prices-hit-records-on-u-s-biofuel-mandates-oil-market.md) | +1.7% | -5.9% |

## Sources

- spglobal.com: https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/agriculture/123024-commodities-2025-us-biomass-based-diesel-market-faces-cost-regulatory-challenges

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.