# Revisiting the RIN Cliff - farmdoc daily

> Farmdoc researchers revisit the RIN cliff of 2023 and early 2024, when renewable diesel supply exceeded RFS mandates and pushed D4 RIN prices toward zero. They explain that the extreme outcome is not stable and that RIN prices must rebound to incentivize mandated production. The article assesses the chance of a repeat.

- Date: 2025-01-15 · published 2025-01-15T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: policy · region US · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/15155-revisiting-the-rin-cliff-farmdoc-daily
- Commodities: [Soybean Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBO.md)

## Why it matters

A future RIN collapse would signal oversupply of biomass-based diesel and weaken soybean oil demand from biofuels, so the prospect of recurrence is bearish for soybean oil.

## Read by commodity

- SBO: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SBO | 2020-07-20 | [Political Football Season Returns with RFS  : The Daily Digest](https://feedsoft.ai/events/51969-political-football-season-returns-with-rfs-the-daily-digest.md) | -0.4% | +5.4% |
| SBO | 2020-03-30 | [‘Unprecedented’: Sizing up the federal farm rescue - POLITICO](https://feedsoft.ai/events/54119-unprecedented-sizing-up-the-federal-farm-rescue-politico.md) | -1.6% | -6.9% |
| SBO | 2026-08-25 | [The Policy that May Cause $1 billion in Lost Revenue for Farmers](https://feedsoft.ai/events/15002-the-policy-that-may-cause-1-billion-in-lost-revenue-for-farmers.md) | +8.1% | +2.0% |
| SBO | 2018-05-21 | [Waiver Wire: Why is the biofuels industry up in arms about oil refinery waivers?  : The Daily Digest](https://feedsoft.ai/events/64918-waiver-wire-why-is-the-biofuels-industry-up-in-arms-about-oil-refinery-waivers.md) | +1.2% | -4.6% |
| SBO | 2017-12-08 | [Palm oil beat down vegetable oil prices  : The Daily Digest](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12715-palm-oil-beat-down-vegetable-oil-prices-the-daily-digest.md) | -0.7% | +0.5% |

## Sources

- farmdocdaily.illinois.edu: https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/01/revisiting-the-rin-cliff.html

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.