# A Glimpse into the Unknown Future of US Biofuels

> Purdue's Scott Irwin says the biggest uncertainty for renewable diesel and FAME biodiesel is how the new Trump administration will set 2026 RVOs, along with implementation of the 45Z tax credit. He describes three biofuel booms since 2000, with renewable diesel the most recent. Irwin notes that sustainable aviation fuel production remains low.

- Date: 2025-01-02 · published 2025-01-02T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: policy · region US · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/15153-a-glimpse-into-the-unknown-future-of-us-biofuels
- Commodities: [Soybean Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBO.md)

## Why it matters

Uncertainty over 2026 RVOs and 45Z makes soybean oil biofuel demand hard to forecast, which adds risk premium and volatility to soybean oil pricing.

## Read by commodity

- SBO: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SBO | 2018-01-16 | [Turning Soybeans Into Diesel Fuel Is Costing Us Billions : The Salt : NPR](https://feedsoft.ai/events/66862-turning-soybeans-into-diesel-fuel-is-costing-us-billions-the-salt-npr.md) | -2.3% | -3.3% |
| SBO | 2021-12-14 | [Biofuels in the Midwest: Today and Tomorrow - Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago](https://feedsoft.ai/events/43609-biofuels-in-the-midwest-today-and-tomorrow-federal-reserve-bank-of-chicago.md) | -0.2% | +5.4% |
| SBO | 2017-06-21 | [Game-Changer in US Biofuels Sector \|         Global Oil & Fats Business Online – gofbonline.com](https://feedsoft.ai/events/70360-game-changer-in-us-biofuels-sector-global-oil-and-fats-business-online.md) | +0.2% | +4.5% |
| SBO | 2019-12-18 | [Ag, biofuel groups appeal to President for 'direct intervention' on RFS](https://feedsoft.ai/events/55456-ag-biofuel-groups-appeal-to-president-for-direct-intervention-on-rfs.md) | +0.2% | -2.3% |
| SBO | 2020-04-17 | [Biofuels industry opposes governors’ RFS request](https://feedsoft.ai/events/53527-biofuels-industry-opposes-governors-rfs-request.md) | -2.6% | -1.4% |

## Sources

- iasoybeans.com: https://www.iasoybeans.com/newsroom/article/outlook-for-us-biofuels

---
Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.