# Biofuels Positioned for 2025 Success Despite Policy Uncertainty

> CoBank's biofuels lead economist outlines 2025 headwinds from political and regulatory uncertainty, offset by strong exports and higher biofuel mandates abroad. EIA projects renewable diesel output rising from 210,000 to 230,000 barrels per day, while ethanol holds near 1.05 million b/d. The outcome of the 45Z clean fuel tax credit under the incoming administration is flagged as a major driver.

- Date: 2025-01-02 · published 2025-01-02T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: policy · region US · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/15150-biofuels-positioned-for-2025-success-despite-policy-uncertainty
- Commodities: [Soybean Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBO.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md)

## Why it matters

Expected renewable diesel growth supports soybean oil and corn oil feedstock demand, while uncertainty over 45Z and E15 policy creates downside risk to ethanol and biofuel-linked crush economics.

## Read by commodity

- SBO: neutral
- CORN: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SBO | 2020-07-29 | [Biofuels Industry Waits for Financial Relief, RFS Volumes Amid Uncertainty](https://feedsoft.ai/events/51965-biofuels-industry-waits-for-financial-relief-rfs-volumes-amid-uncertainty.md) | +7.2% | +8.7% |
| SBO | 2025-02-01 | [Policy Priorities for Biomass-Based Diesel](https://feedsoft.ai/events/15151-policy-priorities-for-biomass-based-diesel.md) | -0.9% | +0.0% |
| SBO | 2021-11-16 | [Biofuels industry seeks certainty, stability](https://feedsoft.ai/events/15434-biofuels-industry-seeks-certainty-stability.md) | +0.9% | -5.2% |
| SBO | 2024-12-12 | [2025 US Biodiesel Market: 2024 Ends Strong As Uncertainty Remains](https://feedsoft.ai/events/15163-2025-us-biodiesel-market-2024-ends-strong-as-uncertainty-remains.md) | -2.8% | +0.7% |
| SBO | 2020-01-17 | [Biofuel Leaders Point to Positives From Rocky 2019](https://feedsoft.ai/events/54953-biofuel-leaders-point-to-positives-from-rocky-2019.md) | -3.1% | -7.4% |
| CORN | 2019-12-20 | [EPA’s final 2020 RFS rule adds more uncertainty to US biofuel policy - Biofuels International Magazine](https://feedsoft.ai/events/55455-epa-s-final-2020-rfs-rule-adds-more-uncertainty-to-us-biofuel-policy-biofuels.md) | +0.8% | +1.4% |
| CORN | 2025-02-05 | [Biofuels face uncertainty after record year](https://feedsoft.ai/events/26047-biofuels-face-uncertainty-after-record-year.md) | +0.4% | -7.9% |
| CORN | 2025-12-05 | [Farm policy advances amid growing uncertainty](https://feedsoft.ai/events/21485-farm-policy-advances-amid-growing-uncertainty.md) | -0.4% | -0.0% |

## Sources

- mnbiofuels.org: https://www.mnbiofuels.org/biofuels-positioned-for-2025-success-despite-policy-uncertainty

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.