# ADM cuts 2025 outlook on US biofuel policy delays, trade woes

> Archer Daniels Midland lowered its full-year 2025 outlook on Nov. 4, citing the deferral of US biofuel policy and a difficult global trade environment. Its agricultural services and oilseeds operating profit fell 21% year over year to $379 million in the third quarter despite higher processed volumes.

- Date: 2025-11-04 · published 2025-11-04T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: policy · region US · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/15070-adm-cuts-2025-outlook-on-us-biofuel-policy-delays-trade-woes
- Commodities: [Soybean Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBO.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md)

## Why it matters

Delayed biofuel policy weakens near-term demand signals for soybean oil and crushing margins, which points to softer soybean oil and soybean prices until clarity returns.

## Read by commodity

- SBO: bearish ▼
- SOY: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SBO | 2018-05-14 | [Trump Energy Policy Sidelines US Biofuels](https://feedsoft.ai/events/64920-trump-energy-policy-sidelines-us-biofuels.md) | -0.6% | -1.9% |
| SBO | 2026-02-03 | [Grain trader ADM's 2026 profit forecast lags expectations amid US biofuel policy uncertainty \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/15053-grain-trader-adm-s-2026-profit-forecast-lags-expectations-amid-us-biofuel.md) | +3.1% | +12.2% |
| SBO | 2025-03-20 | [North American biofuels sector contracts amid trade and policy uncertainty](https://feedsoft.ai/events/15134-north-american-biofuels-sector-contracts-amid-trade-and-policy-uncertainty.md) | +0.6% | +9.9% |
| SBO | 2024-11-04 | [Cargill, Bunge Slow Soy Buying on Stalled US Biofuels Policy](https://feedsoft.ai/events/15168-cargill-bunge-slow-soy-buying-on-stalled-us-biofuels-policy.md) | +5.2% | -6.9% |
| SBO | 2023-02-07 | [Biofuels and feedstocks: Market outlook 2023 - Fastmarkets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/37419-biofuels-and-feedstocks-market-outlook-2023-fastmarkets.md) | +1.6% | +1.8% |
| SOY | 2024-11-04 | [Cargill, Bunge Slow Soy Buying on Stalled US Biofuels Policy](https://feedsoft.ai/events/15168-cargill-bunge-slow-soy-buying-on-stalled-us-biofuels-policy.md) | +3.5% | +0.3% |
| SOY | 2026-01-16 | [US soybean oil prices stall amid biofuel policy, 45Z uncertainty: 2026 preview - Fastmarkets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/15055-us-soybean-oil-prices-stall-amid-biofuel-policy-45z-uncertainty-2026-preview.md) | +1.4% | +7.6% |
| SOY | 2024-10-28 | [Cargill, Bunge Slow Soybean Buying on Stalled US Biofuels Policy - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/27949-cargill-bunge-slow-soybean-buying-on-stalled-us-biofuels-policy-bloomberg.md) | -0.5% | -0.4% |

## Sources

- spglobal.com: https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/agriculture/110425-adm-cuts-2025-outlook-on-us-biofuel-policy-delays-trade-woes

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.