# US soybean oil prices stall amid biofuel policy, 45Z uncertainty: 2026 preview - Fastmarkets

> US soybean oil prices have stalled as biofuel policy and tax credit uncertainty continue into 2026. The shift from the Blenders Tax Credit to the 45Z credit in 2025 left treatment of foreign feedstocks unclear, and biofuel output slowed in 2025 on poor margins. Trading sources hope for policy clarity in the first quarter.

- Date: 2026-01-16 · published 2026-01-16T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: policy · region US · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/15055-us-soybean-oil-prices-stall-amid-biofuel-policy-45z-uncertainty-2026-preview
- Commodities: [Soybean Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBO.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md)

## Why it matters

Biofuel output drives soybean oil demand, so stalled output keeps soyoil and crush values under pressure. Clarity on 45Z could restore demand and support prices.

## Read by commodity

- SBO: bearish ▼
- SOY: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SBO | 2026-10-15 | [Soybean oil prices fall amid new US biofuel proposals](https://feedsoft.ai/events/510-soybean-oil-prices-fall-amid-new-us-biofuel-proposals.md) | +1.8% | — |
| SBO | 2025-06-02 | [Soybean oil prices fall amid uncertainty over US biofuel market and falling oil prices, but India's tariff cuts will boost demand](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10948-soybean-oil-prices-fall-amid-uncertainty-over-us-biofuel-market-and-falling-oil.md) | -2.3% | +5.8% |
| SBO | 2026-01-30 | [Biofuels policy uncertainty continues to pressure soybean demand and prices - Brownfield Ag News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/15056-biofuels-policy-uncertainty-continues-to-pressure-soybean-demand-and-prices.md) | +0.8% | +9.0% |
| SBO | 2026-02-03 | [Grain trader ADM's 2026 profit forecast lags expectations amid US biofuel policy uncertainty \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/15053-grain-trader-adm-s-2026-profit-forecast-lags-expectations-amid-us-biofuel.md) | +3.1% | +12.2% |
| SBO | 2022-12-06 | [Soybean oil prices fall amid shrinking prospects for US biodiesel consumption](https://feedsoft.ai/events/38342-soybean-oil-prices-fall-amid-shrinking-prospects-for-us-biodiesel-consumption.md) | -3.2% | -5.8% |
| SOY | 2026-10-15 | [Soybean oil prices fall amid new US biofuel proposals](https://feedsoft.ai/events/510-soybean-oil-prices-fall-amid-new-us-biofuel-proposals.md) | -1.4% | — |
| SOY | 2026-01-30 | [Biofuels policy uncertainty continues to pressure soybean demand and prices - Brownfield Ag News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/15056-biofuels-policy-uncertainty-continues-to-pressure-soybean-demand-and-prices.md) | +3.7% | +7.9% |
| SOY | 2024-10-28 | [Cargill, Bunge Slow Soybean Buying on Stalled US Biofuels Policy - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/27949-cargill-bunge-slow-soybean-buying-on-stalled-us-biofuels-policy-bloomberg.md) | -0.5% | -0.4% |

## Sources

- fastmarkets.com: https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/us-soybean-oil-prices-stall-amid-biofuel-policy-45z-uncertainty-2026-preview/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.