# Grain trader ADM's 2026 profit forecast lags expectations amid US biofuel policy uncertainty | Reuters

> Grain trader ADM's 2026 profit forecast lags expectations as slow US government finalization of biofuel policies has slowed use of feedstocks such as soybean oil at its plants. The company said earnings could land near the top of its range.

- Date: 2026-02-03 · published 2026-02-03T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: policy · region US · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/15053-grain-trader-adm-s-2026-profit-forecast-lags-expectations-amid-us-biofuel
- Commodities: [Soybean Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBO.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md)

## Why it matters

Policy delays keep soybean oil demand from biofuels uncertain, which weighs on crush margins and soybean oil use, though the company's comments suggest some upside to earnings.

## Read by commodity

- SBO: bearish ▼
- SOY: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SBO | 2019-12-20 | [EPA’s final 2020 RFS rule adds more uncertainty to US biofuel policy - Biofuels International Magazine](https://feedsoft.ai/events/55455-epa-s-final-2020-rfs-rule-adds-more-uncertainty-to-us-biofuel-policy-biofuels.md) | +2.8% | -3.1% |
| SBO | 2026-01-16 | [US soybean oil prices stall amid biofuel policy, 45Z uncertainty: 2026 preview - Fastmarkets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/15055-us-soybean-oil-prices-stall-amid-biofuel-policy-45z-uncertainty-2026-preview.md) | +1.3% | +6.8% |
| SBO | 2025-03-20 | [North American biofuels sector contracts amid trade and policy uncertainty](https://feedsoft.ai/events/15134-north-american-biofuels-sector-contracts-amid-trade-and-policy-uncertainty.md) | +0.6% | +9.9% |
| SBO | 2025-11-04 | [ADM cuts 2025 outlook on US biofuel policy delays, trade woes](https://feedsoft.ai/events/15070-adm-cuts-2025-outlook-on-us-biofuel-policy-delays-trade-woes.md) | +1.2% | +5.1% |
| SBO | 2025-02-05 | [Biofuels face uncertainty after record year](https://feedsoft.ai/events/26047-biofuels-face-uncertainty-after-record-year.md) | +1.5% | -3.0% |
| SOY | 2022-01-11 | [Explainer: What is at stake for the U.S. biofuel blending law in 2022 and beyond \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/15426-explainer-what-is-at-stake-for-the-u-s-biofuel-blending-law-in-2022-and-beyond.md) | -1.0% | +14.1% |
| SOY | 2024-06-11 | [EU ill-prepared to implement its own deforestation law, says grain trade association \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/29771-eu-ill-prepared-to-implement-its-own-deforestation-law-says-grain-trade.md) | -2.6% | -4.0% |
| SOY | 2025-10-06 | [Trump bailout for trade-hit US farmers expected this week \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/22378-trump-bailout-for-trade-hit-us-farmers-expected-this-week-reuters.md) | -1.1% | +8.0% |

## Sources

- reuters.com: https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/grain-trader-adm-forecasts-downbeat-2026-profit-us-biofuel-policy-delay-2026-02-03/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.