# Renewable Diesel Policy Uncertainty Clouds Soybean Crush Outlook -

> Terrain economist Bree Baatz said federal and state biofuel policy uncertainty is shaping renewable diesel expansion and soybean demand. Renewable diesel output fell sharply in 2025 and soybeans have reportedly lost about 375 million bushels of demand over three crop years to substitute feedstocks.

- Date: 2026-03-23 · published 2026-03-23T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: policy · region US · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/15044-renewable-diesel-policy-uncertainty-clouds-soybean-crush-outlook
- Commodities: [Soybean Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBO.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Soybean Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBM.md)

## Why it matters

Feedstock substitution and underused renewable diesel capacity cap soybean oil demand, weighing on crush margins until federal and state rules align.

## Read by commodity

- SBM: neutral
- SBO: bearish ▼
- SOY: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SBO | 2026-03-25 | [As Biofuel Policy Clouds Soybean Crush Outlook, Capacity Expansion in Kansas Offers Bright Spot - RFD](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20198-as-biofuel-policy-clouds-soybean-crush-outlook-capacity-expansion-in-kansas.md) | +3.8% | +5.7% |
| SBO | 2025-04-21 | [Biobased Diesel Policy: CoBank Uncertainty Warning \| Klean Industries](https://feedsoft.ai/events/15131-biobased-diesel-policy-cobank-uncertainty-warning-klean-industries.md) | +2.9% | +1.5% |
| SBO | 2023-10-25 | [Rabobank: Renewable diesel supply glut weighs on soybean prices \| Feed & Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/15266-rabobank-renewable-diesel-supply-glut-weighs-on-soybean-prices-feed-and-grain.md) | +0.6% | +9.0% |
| SBO | 2026-01-30 | [Biofuels policy uncertainty continues to pressure soybean demand and prices - Brownfield Ag News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/15056-biofuels-policy-uncertainty-continues-to-pressure-soybean-demand-and-prices.md) | +0.8% | +9.0% |
| SBO | 2026-01-16 | [US soybean oil prices stall amid biofuel policy, 45Z uncertainty: 2026 preview - Fastmarkets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/15055-us-soybean-oil-prices-stall-amid-biofuel-policy-45z-uncertainty-2026-preview.md) | +1.3% | +6.8% |
| SOY | 2025-04-21 | [Biobased Diesel Policy: CoBank Uncertainty Warning \| Klean Industries](https://feedsoft.ai/events/15131-biobased-diesel-policy-cobank-uncertainty-warning-klean-industries.md) | +1.3% | +1.3% |
| SOY | 2023-10-25 | [Rabobank: Renewable diesel supply glut weighs on soybean prices \| Feed & Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/15266-rabobank-renewable-diesel-supply-glut-weighs-on-soybean-prices-feed-and-grain.md) | -0.6% | +6.3% |
| SOY | 2026-01-30 | [Biofuels policy uncertainty continues to pressure soybean demand and prices - Brownfield Ag News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/15056-biofuels-policy-uncertainty-continues-to-pressure-soybean-demand-and-prices.md) | +3.7% | +7.9% |

## Sources

- allagnews.com: https://www.allagnews.com/renewable-diesel-policy-uncertainty-clouds-soybean-crush-outlook/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.