# New-Crop Soybean Oil Export Projection Suggests Greater Price Volatility - farmdoc daily

> The May 12 WASDE projected 2026/27 US soybean oil exports at 400 million pounds, the second lowest since 1964/65. Biomass-based diesel is expected to take the largest share of a crush-driven domestic soybean oil supply.

- Date: 2026-05-14 · published 2026-05-14T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region US · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/15029-new-crop-soybean-oil-export-projection-suggests-greater-price-volatility
- Commodities: [Soybean Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBO.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md)

## Why it matters

Minimal exports keep soybean oil supplies at home for biofuel use, tightening the domestic balance and supporting soybean oil prices, while greater volatility is expected.

## Read by commodity

- SBO: bullish ▲
- SOY: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SBO | 2023-03-09 | [China, Brazil, EPA factor in soybean price direction \| Food Business News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/15328-china-brazil-epa-factor-in-soybean-price-direction-food-business-news.md) | -5.4% | -5.1% |
| SBO | 2023-01-13 | [US soybean crop and oil prices rise after cuts in the 2022/23 MY crop estimate](https://feedsoft.ai/events/37865-us-soybean-crop-and-oil-prices-rise-after-cuts-in-the-2022-23-my-crop-estimate.md) | -1.6% | -9.4% |
| SBO | 2026-02-19 | [Soybean Oil Used for Biofuel Production Expected to Soar](https://feedsoft.ai/events/15047-soybean-oil-used-for-biofuel-production-expected-to-soar.md) | +2.7% | +1.3% |
| SBO | 2022-12-07 | [Indonesia's palm oil exports to hit record high, despite production shortfall - Grain Price News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/15771-indonesia-s-palm-oil-exports-to-hit-record-high-despite-production-shortfall.md) | -1.4% | -5.2% |
| SBO | 2022-05-04 | [Strong soybean oil demand elevating price \| DRGNews](https://feedsoft.ai/events/41482-strong-soybean-oil-demand-elevating-price-drgnews.md) | +2.6% | -5.4% |
| SOY | 2021-04-06 | [Estimates suggest better crop prospects for new season - McCreath Simpson & Prentice](https://feedsoft.ai/events/47557-estimates-suggest-better-crop-prospects-for-new-season-mccreath-simpson-and.md) | -2.2% | +10.4% |
| SOY | 2022-11-29 | [Tempered Expectations for 2022/23 Supply and Demand for Corn and Soybeans - farmdoc daily](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12217-tempered-expectations-for-2022-23-supply-and-demand-for-corn-and-soybeans.md) | -1.3% | +1.7% |
| SOY | 2022-04-12 | [April Update to 2022 Crop Budgets: Projected Profits Even with Record Costs - farmdoc daily](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13371-april-update-to-2022-crop-budgets-projected-profits-even-with-record-costs.md) | +3.7% | -1.5% |

## Sources

- farmdocdaily.illinois.edu: https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2026/05/new-crop-soybean-oil-export-projection-suggests-greater-price-volatility.html

---
Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.