# Uncertainty Over U.S. Biofuels Policy Muddying Outlook: CoBank - OPIS, A Dow Jones Company

> CoBank says uncertainty around US biofuel policy, including RVOs, small refinery exemptions and the 45Z credit, is clouding the outlook. The report says soybean oil may be the winner of the proposed 2026-2027 RVO change, and that without SRE grants the market could be short nearly 2 billion RINs if RIN generation does not pick up.

- Date: 2026-07-15 · published 2026-07-15T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: policy · region US · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/15010-uncertainty-over-u-s-biofuels-policy-muddying-outlook-cobank-opis-a-dow-jones
- Commodities: [Soybean Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBO.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md)

## Why it matters

Expected soybean oil share of the feedstock pool supports soybean oil prices, while policy uncertainty around RINs and exemptions adds volatility to the outlook.

## Read by commodity

- SBO: bullish ▲
- SOY: bullish ▲

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SBO | 2026-07-16 | 5 | +7.1% | 2.9 | CoBank flagged soybean oil as a likely winner of the higher RVOs, supporting biofuel-driven demand expectations. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SBO | 2018-03-19 | [Biofuels Industry and Regulatory Policies in 2018  - OPIS, A Dow Jones Company](https://feedsoft.ai/events/65892-biofuels-industry-and-regulatory-policies-in-2018-opis-a-dow-jones-company.md) | -1.8% | -2.5% |
| SBO | 2026-03-17 | [Indonesia Could Face Obstacles in Advancing Higher Biofuel Blends: Sources - OPIS, A Dow Jones Company](https://feedsoft.ai/events/15484-indonesia-could-face-obstacles-in-advancing-higher-biofuel-blends-sources-opis.md) | +0.6% | +0.2% |
| SBO | 2025-08-01 | [Uncertainty prevails as soy oil market seeks US biofuels clarity](https://feedsoft.ai/events/23827-uncertainty-prevails-as-soy-oil-market-seeks-us-biofuels-clarity.md) | -1.5% | -1.3% |
| SBO | 2020-03-09 | [The Biodiesel Tax Credit: What Does the New Extension Mean? - OPIS, A Dow Jones Company](https://feedsoft.ai/events/54003-the-biodiesel-tax-credit-what-does-the-new-extension-mean-opis-a-dow-jones.md) | -8.3% | -7.2% |
| SBO | 2025-12-05 | [Farm policy advances amid growing uncertainty](https://feedsoft.ai/events/21485-farm-policy-advances-amid-growing-uncertainty.md) | -2.2% | -4.9% |
| SOY | 2025-08-26 | [How the EPA's RIN Policy is Reshaping the U.S. Biofuel Industry](https://feedsoft.ai/events/15100-how-the-epa-s-rin-policy-is-reshaping-the-u-s-biofuel-industry.md) | +0.0% | -1.3% |
| SOY | 2026-06-25 | [Biomass-Based Diesel Feedstock Demand Projected to Climb 57% in 2026, 81% in 2027: Analysis - OPIS, A Dow Jones Company](https://feedsoft.ai/events/15015-biomass-based-diesel-feedstock-demand-projected-to-climb-57-in-2026-81-in-2027.md) | +1.6% | +11.6% |
| SOY | 2018-04-20 | [Paris, Beijing decisions complicate soy outlook](https://feedsoft.ai/events/65402-paris-beijing-decisions-complicate-soy-outlook.md) | -0.9% | -4.1% |

## Sources

- opis.com: https://www.opis.com/resources/energy-market-news-from-opis/uncertainty-over-u-s-biofuels-policy-muddying-outlook-cobank/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.