# Trade Policy Shifts and Their Potential Implications for U.S. Agricultural Exports

> A farmdoc analysis examines potential U.S. trade policy shifts, including higher tariffs on Chinese EVs and the possible revocation of China's Permanent Normal Trade Relations status. The authors model three scenarios for the effects on soybeans, corn, beef and wheat. They note that past trade disputes severely hurt U.S. farm exports through Chinese retaliation.

- Date: 2024-10-01 · published 2024-10-01T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: policy · region US · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/14723-trade-policy-shifts-and-their-potential-implications-for-u-s-agricultural
- Commodities: [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md)

## Why it matters

Renewed tariffs or PNTR revocation could prompt Chinese retaliation against U.S. farm goods, reducing export demand for soybeans and corn. Traders would price in this retaliation risk, which weighs on U.S. grain values.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: bearish ▼
- CORN: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SOY | 2017-05-02 | [FiBL - Report on the EU Common Agricultural Policy and deforestation](https://feedsoft.ai/events/71041-fibl-report-on-the-eu-common-agricultural-policy-and-deforestation.md) | -0.3% | -4.8% |
| SOY | 2022-07-26 | [Tariffs & Trade War Impact on U.S. Agriculture \| Tax Foundation](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14920-tariffs-and-trade-war-impact-on-u-s-agriculture-tax-foundation.md) | +8.2% | +3.7% |
| SOY | 2026-06-05 | [Argentina: Argentina Further Cuts Agricultural Export Taxes \| USDA Foreign Agricultural Service](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13791-argentina-argentina-further-cuts-agricultural-export-taxes-usda-foreign.md) | -0.6% | -0.4% |
| SOY | 2017-05-04 | [Drawing out links between the Common Agricultural Policy, soy, and deforestation in South America - Fern](https://feedsoft.ai/events/71038-drawing-out-links-between-the-common-agricultural-policy-soy-and-deforestation.md) | -0.4% | -5.5% |
| SOY | 2018-12-31 | [Profiles and Effects of Retaliatory Tariffs on U.S. Agricultural Exports - EveryCRSReport.com](https://feedsoft.ai/events/61443-profiles-and-effects-of-retaliatory-tariffs-on-u-s-agricultural-exports.md) | +3.3% | +4.1% |
| CORN | 2024-07-11 | [Corn Was King: The Transition to Soy in U.S. Production Agriculture - Center for Commercial Agriculture](https://feedsoft.ai/events/15197-corn-was-king-the-transition-to-soy-in-u-s-production-agriculture-center-for.md) | -0.9% | -1.6% |
| CORN | 2025-06-25 | [NDSU report projects rising export costs for U.S. agriculture under new port fees](https://feedsoft.ai/events/24402-ndsu-report-projects-rising-export-costs-for-u-s-agriculture-under-new-port-fees.md) | +2.3% | -2.8% |
| CORN | 2019-09-30 | [Lack of Funding for U.S. Internal Waterways System Threatens to Damage Agricultural Production and Shipping - FreightWaves](https://feedsoft.ai/events/57252-lack-of-funding-for-u-s-internal-waterways-system-threatens-to-damage.md) | -0.9% | +1.1% |

## Sources

- farmdocdaily.illinois.edu: https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2024/09/trade-policy-shifts-and-their-potential-implications-for-u-s-agricultural-exports.html

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.