# Potential impacts of US-China trade war 2.0 on soybeans - Rabobank

> Rabobank expects a high likelihood of renewed US-China trade war escalation under Trump's second term, with China likely to retaliate against soybeans and grains. Rabobank says China's impact may be smaller than in 2018-2019 due to state reserves, more Brazilian imports and lower-protein feed formulas. A renewed trade war could cut US farmgate soybean prices by $1.50 to $2.00 per bushel and reduce acreage by up to 5 million acres.

- Date: 2025-01-06 · published 2025-01-06T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: trade · region US · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/14693-potential-impacts-of-us-china-trade-war-2-0-on-soybeans-rabobank
- Commodities: [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md)

## Why it matters

Expected retaliation against US soybeans would reduce export demand and lower farmgate prices. Rabobank's forecast of possible small-batch purchases as goodwill gestures suggests a partial offset.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SOY | 2018-08-01 | [Why Soybeans Are at the Heart of the U.S.-China Trade War](https://feedsoft.ai/events/64080-why-soybeans-are-at-the-heart-of-the-u-s-china-trade-war.md) | -1.6% | -9.2% |
| SOY | 2025-04-30 | [CBOT soybeans hit two-week low on US-China trade war concerns](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25128-cbot-soybeans-hit-two-week-low-on-us-china-trade-war-concerns.md) | -0.6% | +0.7% |
| SOY | 2019-08-23 | [Trade war: US official says China far short of soybean purchase pledge](https://feedsoft.ai/events/57439-trade-war-us-official-says-china-far-short-of-soybean-purchase-pledge.md) | +0.0% | +3.1% |
| SOY | 2019-11-06 | [Panamax rates slide as trade war bites into US soybean exports to China](https://feedsoft.ai/events/56287-panamax-rates-slide-as-trade-war-bites-into-us-soybean-exports-to-china.md) | -1.7% | -4.7% |
| SOY | 2018-12-24 | [China imports zero US soybeans in Nov for first time since trade war started](https://feedsoft.ai/events/61444-china-imports-zero-us-soybeans-in-nov-for-first-time-since-trade-war-started.md) | -0.3% | +3.4% |

## Sources

- rabobank.com: https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/q011461253-potential-impacts-of-us-china-trade-war-2-0-on-soybeans

---
Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.