# Significant Potential Impact of Tariffs, Trade Retaliation on U.S. Ag Sector

> A study commissioned by the American Soybean Association and National Corn Growers Association projects large export losses under a renewed US-China trade war. In a 60% retaliatory tariff scenario, soybean exports to China could fall by over 25 MMT and corn exports by nearly 90%. US soybean prices could drop by nearly $1 per bushel.

- Date: 2025-01-03 · published 2025-01-03T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: trade · region US · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/14691-significant-potential-impact-of-tariffs-trade-retaliation-on-u-s-ag-sector
- Commodities: [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md)

## Why it matters

Projected loss of China demand would reduce US soybean and corn prices and lower farm revenue. The figures are scenario estimates rather than realized policy, so they signal risk rather than an immediate price shock.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: bearish ▼
- CORN: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SOY | 2024-10-10 | [Trade Study: How Potential New Tariffs Could Impact U.S. Soybeans and Corn - American Soybean Association](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14713-trade-study-how-potential-new-tariffs-could-impact-u-s-soybeans-and-corn.md) | -3.9% | -2.5% |
| SOY | 2022-01-11 | [The Economic Impacts of Retaliatory Tariffs on U.S. Agriculture - WITA](https://feedsoft.ai/events/43144-the-economic-impacts-of-retaliatory-tariffs-on-u-s-agriculture-wita.md) | -1.0% | +14.1% |
| SOY | 2025-01-06 | [Potential impacts of US-China trade war 2.0 on soybeans - Rabobank](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14693-potential-impacts-of-us-china-trade-war-2-0-on-soybeans-rabobank.md) | +3.3% | +7.9% |
| SOY | 2018-03-11 | [New U.S. Tariffs Ramp-Up Fear of Ag Trade Retaliation; Soybean Growers Especially Worried \| Farm Policy News \| Illinois](https://feedsoft.ai/events/65985-new-u-s-tariffs-ramp-up-fear-of-ag-trade-retaliation-soybean-growers-especially.md) | +2.0% | +1.7% |
| SOY | 2018-06-22 | [China's Retaliation to Trump's Tariffs \| PIIE](https://feedsoft.ai/events/64584-china-s-retaliation-to-trump-s-tariffs-piie.md) | -2.2% | -3.5% |
| CORN | 2024-10-10 | [Trade Study: How Potential New Tariffs Could Impact U.S. Soybeans and Corn - American Soybean Association](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14713-trade-study-how-potential-new-tariffs-could-impact-u-s-soybeans-and-corn.md) | -2.6% | +0.4% |
| CORN | 2018-03-11 | [New U.S. Tariffs Ramp-Up Fear of Ag Trade Retaliation; Soybean Growers Especially Worried \| Farm Policy News \| Illinois](https://feedsoft.ai/events/65985-new-u-s-tariffs-ramp-up-fear-of-ag-trade-retaliation-soybean-growers-especially.md) | +1.7% | +5.0% |
| CORN | 2025-04-01 | [Trump's China tariffs trigger retaliation against U.S. farm products](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14679-trump-s-china-tariffs-trigger-retaliation-against-u-s-farm-products.md) | +1.0% | +2.2% |

## Sources

- agweb.com: https://www.agweb.com/markets/pro-farmer-analysis/significant-potential-impact-tariffs-trade-retaliation-u-s-ag-sector

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.