# U.S.-China trade war 2.0: What are the implications for global oilseed markets? | IFPRI

> An IFPRI analysis examines how the renewed US-China trade war could affect global oilseed and agrifood trade. The US and China have imposed tariffs exceeding those of the 2018-2019 conflict.

- Date: 2025-04-21 · published 2025-04-21T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: trade · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/14672-u-s-china-trade-war-2-0-what-are-the-implications-for-global-oilseed-markets
- Commodities: [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Soybean Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBM.md), [Soybean Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBO.md)

## Why it matters

Diverted trade flows in oilseeds would shift demand toward Brazilian supply and could widen price spreads between origins.

## Read by commodity

- SBM: neutral
- SBO: neutral
- SOY: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SOY | 2019-05-14 | [US-China trade stand-off and implications for FX markets \| Lombard Odier](https://feedsoft.ai/events/8442-us-china-trade-stand-off-and-implications-for-fx-markets-lombard-odier.md) | +5.2% | +8.6% |
| SOY | 2018-08-01 | [Why Soybeans Are at the Heart of the U.S.-China Trade War](https://feedsoft.ai/events/64080-why-soybeans-are-at-the-heart-of-the-u-s-china-trade-war.md) | -1.6% | -9.2% |
| SOY | 2019-08-27 | [Forex markets: US-China trade tensions in focus](https://feedsoft.ai/events/57811-forex-markets-us-china-trade-tensions-in-focus.md) | +0.3% | +4.7% |
| SOY | 2019-08-08 | [US-China trade war: Soybean farmers are working new markets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/57614-us-china-trade-war-soybean-farmers-are-working-new-markets.md) | +1.4% | +0.1% |
| SOY | 2019-03-14 | [Why U.S. growers are betting the farm on soybeans amid China trade war](https://feedsoft.ai/events/8266-why-u-s-growers-are-betting-the-farm-on-soybeans-amid-china-trade-war.md) | +1.9% | +1.5% |
| SBM | 2019-10-30 | [Soybean Prices are a Proxy for How the Trade War is Going - Global Trade Magazine](https://feedsoft.ai/events/56614-soybean-prices-are-a-proxy-for-how-the-trade-war-is-going-global-trade-magazine.md) | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| SBM | 2020-11-23 | [China crushers wash out US soybeans amid tight margins: trade - Fastmarkets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/50234-china-crushers-wash-out-us-soybeans-amid-tight-margins-trade-fastmarkets.md) | -0.4% | +4.5% |
| SBM | 2025-08-28 | [What Role Do Farm Products Have in U.S.-China Trade Deal?](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14641-what-role-do-farm-products-have-in-u-s-china-trade-deal.md) | -5.5% | -6.9% |

## Sources

- ifpri.org: https://www.ifpri.org/blog/u-s-china-trade-war-2-0-what-are-the-implications-for-global-oilseed-markets/

---
Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.