# U.S. soybean exports risk 20% drop without improved China deal

> A temporary US-China trade truce cut Chinese tariffs on US goods to 10% from 145%, but analysts said duties remained too high for US soybeans to compete. AgResource projects US soybean exports could fall to 1.5 billion bushels from an initial estimate of 1.865 billion without a substantive deal. Corn exports could drop 13% to 2.4 billion bushels.

- Date: 2025-05-14 · published 2025-05-14T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: trade · region US · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/14663-u-s-soybean-exports-risk-20-drop-without-improved-china-deal
- Commodities: [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md)

## Why it matters

A projected drop of roughly 20% in soybean exports would leave more US supply domestically, pressuring soybean and corn prices unless a deal is reached.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: bearish ▼
- CORN: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SOY | 2025-08-01 | [China’s soybean meal stockpiles rise, US soybean imports in doubt](https://feedsoft.ai/events/23301-china-s-soybean-meal-stockpiles-rise-us-soybean-imports-in-doubt.md) | +1.0% | +6.9% |
| SOY | 2025-06-09 | [Decline of China's Soybean Meal Market Amid Rising Imports](https://feedsoft.ai/events/24312-decline-of-china-s-soybean-meal-market-amid-rising-imports.md) | +1.2% | -3.1% |
| SOY | 2018-08-01 | [Why China’s pork producers can survive without US soybean imports \| South China Morning Post](https://feedsoft.ai/events/63551-why-china-s-pork-producers-can-survive-without-us-soybean-imports-south-china.md) | -1.6% | -9.2% |
| SOY | 2019-01-25 | [China's 2018 soybean imports from U.S. hit lowest since 2008](https://feedsoft.ai/events/60959-china-s-2018-soybean-imports-from-u-s-hit-lowest-since-2008.md) | -0.1% | -0.6% |
| SOY | 2021-07-26 | [Protein pinch: China's soybean imports to slow over rest of 2021 on curbed meal use](https://feedsoft.ai/events/45921-protein-pinch-china-s-soybean-imports-to-slow-over-rest-of-2021-on-curbed-meal.md) | +1.0% | -7.7% |
| CORN | 2024-09-13 | [Weathering the Storm: U.S. Corn Exports Drop as China Shifts Import Strategy](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14719-weathering-the-storm-u-s-corn-exports-drop-as-china-shifts-import-strategy.md) | +2.9% | +3.8% |
| CORN | 2018-11-01 | [China slashed its imports of U.S. sorghum, soybean, and corn in September](https://feedsoft.ai/events/61930-china-slashed-its-imports-of-u-s-sorghum-soybean-and-corn-in-september.md) | +3.6% | -4.4% |
| CORN | 2020-12-01 | [China Targets U.S. Farm Imports With Tariffs \| Feed & Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/49501-china-targets-u-s-farm-imports-with-tariffs-feed-and-grain.md) | -0.4% | +1.4% |

## Sources

- reuters.com: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/us-soybean-exports-may-fall-20-without-china-trade-deal-agresource-says-2025-05-14/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.