# ANALYSIS: Tariff gap likely to keep China's soybean imports anchored to Brazil | S&P Global

> S&P Global analysts expect Brazil to keep its dominant share of China's soybean imports in 2026. Brazil supplied 73.6% of China's imports in 2025, and China imported a record 111.82 million metric tons overall. US beans face a 13% duty in China versus 3% on Brazilian cargoes.

- Date: 2026-02-19 · published 2026-02-19T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: trade · region China · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/14599-analysis-tariff-gap-likely-to-keep-china-s-soybean-imports-anchored-to-brazil-s
- Commodities: [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md)

## Why it matters

The tariff gap and Brazil's price advantage limit demand for US soybeans, keeping pressure on US soybean export prices while Brazil's harvest is large.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SOY | 2021-03-24 | [Weak crush margins likely to keep China's soybean demand low until May: sources \| S&P Global](https://feedsoft.ai/events/48203-weak-crush-margins-likely-to-keep-china-s-soybean-demand-low-until-may-sources.md) | -4.0% | +5.2% |
| SOY | 2018-04-04 | [CPO to gain from China’s soybean import tariff \| The Star](https://feedsoft.ai/events/65604-cpo-to-gain-from-china-s-soybean-import-tariff-the-star.md) | +1.2% | +0.4% |
| SOY | 2019-03-14 | [Europe Buys More U.S. Soybeans as Exports to China Plunge - Caixin Global](https://feedsoft.ai/events/8268-europe-buys-more-u-s-soybeans-as-exports-to-china-plunge-caixin-global.md) | +1.9% | +1.5% |
| SOY | 2025-05-28 | [China halted U.S. soybean & corn imports before Trump tariff war – China Environment News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14664-china-halted-u-s-soybean-and-corn-imports-before-trump-tariff-war-china.md) | -2.0% | -3.5% |
| SOY | 2018-01-25 | [Soy source: Brazil's share of soybean exports to China hits record](https://feedsoft.ai/events/67014-soy-source-brazil-s-share-of-soybean-exports-to-china-hits-record.md) | +0.4% | +4.0% |

## Sources

- spglobal.com: https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/agriculture/021926-analysis-tariff-gap-likely-to-keep-chinas-soybean-imports-anchored-to-brazil

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.