# Rising Tensions in Eastern Europe and Dry Bulk Shipping — Breakwave Advisors

> Analysts warn that rising Eastern Europe tensions could escalate into open hostilities, bringing sanctions and trade disruptions. Around 231 million tonnes of dry bulk cargo was shipped from Black Sea ports last year, 85% of it from Ukraine and Russia. A conflict could make the Black Sea inaccessible to commercial shipping in whole or part.

- Date: 2022-01-27 · published 2022-01-27T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: logistics · region Black Sea · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/14516-rising-tensions-in-eastern-europe-and-dry-bulk-shipping-breakwave-advisors
- Commodities: [Ocean Grain Freight](https://feedsoft.ai/c/OCEANFRT.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md)

## Why it matters

Closure or disruption of Black Sea ports would raise dry bulk freight rates and reroute grain supply, tightening feed grain availability and increasing ocean freight costs.

## Read by commodity

- CORN: bullish ▲
- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- OCEANFRT: bullish ▲

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| OCEANFRT | 2022-03-01 | 1 | +17.9% | 2.4 | Warnings in late January that Black Sea dry bulk exports (231 Mt) could be disrupted fed risk premia and tonnage-rerouting expectations in grain freight. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2022-12-02 | [Signal Dry Bulk Weekly Report — Breakwave Advisors](https://feedsoft.ai/events/38134-signal-dry-bulk-weekly-report-breakwave-advisors.md) | -9.7% | -1.7% |
| WHEAT | 2022-04-28 | [Signal Dry Bulk Weekly Report — Breakwave Advisors](https://feedsoft.ai/events/42043-signal-dry-bulk-weekly-report-breakwave-advisors.md) | -1.3% | +0.9% |
| WHEAT | 2023-05-11 | [Signal Dry Bulk Weekly Report — Breakwave Advisors](https://feedsoft.ai/events/36120-signal-dry-bulk-weekly-report-breakwave-advisors.md) | -1.1% | -7.6% |
| WHEAT | 2026-07-28 | [Ukraine: suspension of shipping to Black Sea ports and the associated risks \| OSW Centre for Eastern Studies](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14099-ukraine-suspension-of-shipping-to-black-sea-ports-and-the-associated-risks-osw.md) | -0.3% | +4.8% |
| WHEAT | 2022-10-24 | [Freight rates in the Azov-Black Sea region are increasing \| Ukrainian and World Shipping News - Ukrainian Shipping Magazine - Ukrainian and World Shipping News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/39033-freight-rates-in-the-azov-black-sea-region-are-increasing-ukrainian-and-world.md) | -0.6% | +1.5% |
| CORN | 2022-12-02 | [Signal Dry Bulk Weekly Report — Breakwave Advisors](https://feedsoft.ai/events/38134-signal-dry-bulk-weekly-report-breakwave-advisors.md) | -1.9% | +2.9% |
| CORN | 2026-07-28 | [Ukraine: suspension of shipping to Black Sea ports and the associated risks \| OSW Centre for Eastern Studies](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14099-ukraine-suspension-of-shipping-to-black-sea-ports-and-the-associated-risks-osw.md) | -1.7% | +1.9% |
| CORN | 2017-01-30 | [Low water levels hamper Rhine and Danube shipping in Germany](https://feedsoft.ai/events/72900-low-water-levels-hamper-rhine-and-danube-shipping-in-germany.md) | +2.0% | +1.2% |

## Sources

- breakwaveadvisors.com: https://www.breakwaveadvisors.com/insights/2022/1/27/rising-tensions-in-eastern-europe-and-dry-bulk-shipping

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.