# The Ukraine-Russia Grain Deal: A Success or Failure? | Wilson Center

> Russia announced in October 2022 that it was quitting the UN and Turkey-brokered grain deal, citing an alleged Ukrainian attack on its fleet, then reversed course after Turkish mediation and Ukrainian written guarantees. The article assesses the deal as functional but vulnerable to Russian suspension at any time.

- Date: 2023-01-09 · published 2023-01-09T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: geopolitics · region Black Sea · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/14425-the-ukraine-russia-grain-deal-a-success-or-failure-wilson-center
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

The deal's fragility means any renewed suspension could quickly remove Ukrainian grain from world markets, supporting corn and wheat prices.

## Read by commodity

- CORN: bullish ▲
- WHEAT: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2023-07-17 | [Russia-Ukraine grain deal: What does it mean for global food prices](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35104-russia-ukraine-grain-deal-what-does-it-mean-for-global-food-prices.md) | -8.6% | -12.6% |
| CORN | 2023-06-22 | [Ukraine 99.9% certain Russia will quit Black Sea grain deal in July, envoy says](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14386-ukraine-99-9-certain-russia-will-quit-black-sea-grain-deal-in-july-envoy-says.md) | -8.7% | -14.9% |
| CORN | 2026-02-19 | [Ukraine's grain, iron ore exports hit by Russian strikes on ports this winter \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14135-ukraine-s-grain-iron-ore-exports-hit-by-russian-strikes-on-ports-this-winter.md) | +0.6% | +7.4% |
| CORN | 2023-06-16 | [Explainer: What is Russia's problem with the Black Sea grain deal?](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14383-explainer-what-is-russia-s-problem-with-the-black-sea-grain-deal.md) | +2.2% | -5.1% |
| CORN | 2023-06-01 | [Ukraine says Russia again blocking Black Sea grain export deal \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14384-ukraine-says-russia-again-blocking-black-sea-grain-export-deal-reuters.md) | -2.2% | -3.2% |
| WHEAT | 2023-04-21 | [The Black Sea Grain Deal: Fragile Cooperation Between Ukraine and Russia \| Lawfare](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14403-the-black-sea-grain-deal-fragile-cooperation-between-ukraine-and-russia-lawfare.md) | -8.6% | -9.9% |
| WHEAT | 2023-07-17 | [Russia-Ukraine grain deal: What does it mean for global food prices](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35104-russia-ukraine-grain-deal-what-does-it-mean-for-global-food-prices.md) | +2.4% | +2.8% |
| WHEAT | 2023-06-22 | [Ukraine 99.9% certain Russia will quit Black Sea grain deal in July, envoy says](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14386-ukraine-99-9-certain-russia-will-quit-black-sea-grain-deal-in-july-envoy-says.md) | +7.6% | -0.3% |

## Sources

- wilsoncenter.org: https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/ukraine-russia-grain-deal-success-or-failure

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.