# The Black Sea Grain Deal: Fragile Cooperation Between Ukraine and Russia | Lawfare

> A Lawfare analysis describes the Black Sea Grain Initiative as a fragile arrangement, extended in March 2023 with disputed length between 60 and 120 days. The author argues that each party's veto over extensions and Russian threats to exit each time create permanent instability.

- Date: 2023-04-21 · published 2023-04-21T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: geopolitics · region Black Sea · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/14403-the-black-sea-grain-deal-fragile-cooperation-between-ukraine-and-russia-lawfare
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

The recurring risk of the deal collapsing keeps a risk premium in wheat and corn markets. Actual price impact depends on whether the extensions hold.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2022-06-28 | [The Battle for the Black Sea \| Russia-Ukraine war \| Al Jazeera](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14478-the-battle-for-the-black-sea-russia-ukraine-war-al-jazeera.md) | -7.7% | -16.6% |
| WHEAT | 2023-06-01 | [Ukraine says Russia again blocking Black Sea grain export deal \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14384-ukraine-says-russia-again-blocking-black-sea-grain-export-deal-reuters.md) | -3.6% | +8.1% |
| WHEAT | 2026-10-10 | [Ukraine and Russia's grain harvest under threat amid Black sea attacks](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14075-ukraine-and-russia-s-grain-harvest-under-threat-amid-black-sea-attacks.md) | +3.7% | +4.2% |
| WHEAT | 2023-03-17 | [Russia Still Slow-Walking Ukraine Food Exports in Black Sea Grain Deal](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14410-russia-still-slow-walking-ukraine-food-exports-in-black-sea-grain-deal.md) | -3.7% | -6.8% |
| WHEAT | 2023-01-09 | [The Ukraine-Russia Grain Deal: A Success or Failure? \| Wilson Center](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14425-the-ukraine-russia-grain-deal-a-success-or-failure-wilson-center.md) | -2.6% | -3.0% |

## Sources

- lawfaremedia.org: https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/the-black-sea-grain-deal-fragile-cooperation-between-ukraine-and-russia

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.