# Ukraine's grain exports to drop in MY 2024-25 amid lower supply, smaller output estimate

> S&P Global reports Ukraine's grain exports are expected to fall in marketing year 2024-25 as production drops to an estimated 52.4 million tonnes from 60 million in 2023. Farmers are shifting acreage toward more profitable sunflower and other oilseeds, and EU safeguards may cap wheat and corn imports.

- Date: 2024-05-02 · published 2024-05-02T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Ukraine · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/14302-ukraine-s-grain-exports-to-drop-in-my-2024-25-amid-lower-supply-smaller-output
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Sunflower Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SUNMEAL.md)

## Why it matters

Smaller Ukrainian grain exports tighten global wheat and corn supply, supporting prices, while the shift to sunflower could lift sunmeal availability.

## Read by commodity

- CORN: bullish ▲
- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- SUNMEAL: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2024-10-11 | [Ukraine grain exports to fall by more than 10 million tonnes due to smaller crop, official says - Grainews](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14262-ukraine-grain-exports-to-fall-by-more-than-10-million-tonnes-due-to-smaller.md) | -0.5% | -1.5% |
| WHEAT | 2024-03-25 | [Slow start for Ukraine's 2025-26 agri-exports \| Latest Market News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14319-slow-start-for-ukraine-s-2025-26-agri-exports-latest-market-news.md) | -0.6% | +1.9% |
| WHEAT | 2023-12-22 | [COCERAL sees smaller EU grain crop in 2024 \| World Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/32652-coceral-sees-smaller-eu-grain-crop-in-2024-world-grain.md) | +0.9% | +1.5% |
| WHEAT | 2020-10-19 | [Weather-hit crop means lower EU grains exports \| 2020-10-19  \| World Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/50573-weather-hit-crop-means-lower-eu-grains-exports-2020-10-19-world-grain.md) | +1.2% | -1.1% |
| WHEAT | 2023-04-03 | [India may reduce wheat output estimate due to unseasonal showers, hail](https://feedsoft.ai/events/36363-india-may-reduce-wheat-output-estimate-due-to-unseasonal-showers-hail.md) | -13.2% | -13.6% |
| CORN | 2024-10-11 | [Ukraine grain exports to fall by more than 10 million tonnes due to smaller crop, official says - Grainews](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14262-ukraine-grain-exports-to-fall-by-more-than-10-million-tonnes-due-to-smaller.md) | -1.8% | +0.9% |
| CORN | 2024-03-25 | [Slow start for Ukraine's 2025-26 agri-exports \| Latest Market News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14319-slow-start-for-ukraine-s-2025-26-agri-exports-latest-market-news.md) | -4.9% | -6.9% |
| CORN | 2023-12-22 | [COCERAL sees smaller EU grain crop in 2024 \| World Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/32652-coceral-sees-smaller-eu-grain-crop-in-2024-world-grain.md) | +2.4% | -1.8% |

## Sources

- spglobal.com: https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-insights/en/news-research/latest-news/agriculture/050224-ukraines-grain-exports-to-drop-in-my-2024-25-amid-lower-supply-smaller-output-estimate

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.