# FACTBOX: Black Sea grains trade sees shift amid potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal

> Black Sea grain trade is shifting as a possible Russia-Ukraine peace deal develops. Russia's share of global wheat exports rose to 28% in 2023-24, while Ukraine's has fallen and its exports have not returned to pre-war levels. USDA projects higher Black Sea sunflower oil output in 2024-25, and a trade source says the market has largely stopped reacting to attacks on ports and ships.

- Date: 2025-03-19 · published 2025-03-19T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: trade · region Black Sea · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/14222-factbox-black-sea-grains-trade-sees-shift-amid-potential-russia-ukraine-peace
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Soybean Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBO.md)

## Why it matters

Markets have become used to Black Sea disruptions, so short-term ceasefire news is unlikely to move prices much. Russia's larger export share keeps it the main factor in global wheat supply.

## Read by commodity

- SBO: neutral
- WHEAT: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2022-02-28 | [Regulatory woes thwart potential wheat export gains for India spawned by Russia-Ukraine war](https://feedsoft.ai/events/42688-regulatory-woes-thwart-potential-wheat-export-gains-for-india-spawned-by-russia.md) | +12.1% | +26.0% |
| WHEAT | 2026-04-01 | [Ukrainian grain flows faster to ports despite Russian strikes](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14128-ukrainian-grain-flows-faster-to-ports-despite-russian-strikes.md) | -2.5% | +0.9% |
| WHEAT | 2017-08-04 | [Grain export from Ukraine and Russia](https://feedsoft.ai/events/69296-grain-export-from-ukraine-and-russia.md) | -3.9% | -3.9% |
| WHEAT | 2025-03-26 | [Black Sea deal unlikely to boost Russian food exports in short-term](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14223-black-sea-deal-unlikely-to-boost-russian-food-exports-in-short-term.md) | -1.6% | +1.6% |
| WHEAT | 2022-03-21 | [Russia exports more wheat via Black Sea, domestic grain prices rise](https://feedsoft.ai/events/6244-russia-exports-more-wheat-via-black-sea-domestic-grain-prices-rise.md) | +15.8% | +5.9% |
| SBO | 2020-05-02 | [Poland and Ukraine to retain trade in oilseeds and by-products](https://feedsoft.ai/events/53250-poland-and-ukraine-to-retain-trade-in-oilseeds-and-by-products.md) | +0.3% | +5.6% |
| SBO | 2024-11-05 | [Ukraine's seaborne grain and oilseed exports in October rose y/y.](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14258-ukraine-s-seaborne-grain-and-oilseed-exports-in-october-rose-y-y.md) | +4.1% | -8.4% |
| SBO | 2026-02-17 | [Indian veg oil buyers await clarity on US trade deal](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20706-indian-veg-oil-buyers-await-clarity-on-us-trade-deal.md) | +3.2% | +1.4% |

## Sources

- spglobal.com: https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-insights/en/news-research/latest-news/agriculture/031925-factbox-black-sea-grains-trade-sees-shift-amid-potential-russia-ukraine-peace-deal

---
Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.