# Does Ukraine Need a New Black Sea Grain Initiative?

> A CSIS analysis says Russia wants to restart the expired Black Sea Grain Initiative. It notes that Russia's agricultural exports rose 7% from 2023 to 2024 and that Ukraine has expanded its exports without Russian cooperation. The analysis argues that Russian demands for loosened sanctions would mainly strengthen Russia's farm sector.

- Date: 2025-03-28 · published 2025-03-28T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: geopolitics · region Black Sea · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/14221-does-ukraine-need-a-new-black-sea-grain-initiative
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

Ukraine's continued export flows limit how much a restored grain deal could change global wheat supply, so the price effect is small. Any sanctions relief would mainly add to Russian export competition over time.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2025-04-08 | [Shipbrokers weigh the impact of a Black Sea peace deal on grain exports](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14212-shipbrokers-weigh-the-impact-of-a-black-sea-peace-deal-on-grain-exports.md) | +1.7% | +5.2% |
| WHEAT | 2018-11-29 | [Russia Does Not Expect Ukraine Crisis to Have Big Impact on Grain Exports - Business Insider](https://feedsoft.ai/events/61917-russia-does-not-expect-ukraine-crisis-to-have-big-impact-on-grain-exports.md) | +1.4% | +3.7% |
| WHEAT | 2025-04-03 | [Ceasefire or stalemate? Grain exports at risk in Black Sea deal - Food & Agribusiness](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14216-ceasefire-or-stalemate-grain-exports-at-risk-in-black-sea-deal-food-and.md) | -0.6% | +2.0% |
| WHEAT | 2025-12-24 | [Ukraine’s grain export landscape — Breakwave Advisors](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14152-ukraine-s-grain-export-landscape-breakwave-advisors.md) | -0.3% | -0.6% |
| WHEAT | 2019-07-11 | [Ukraine’s meteoric rise in grain \| 2019-07-11  \| World Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/57943-ukraine-s-meteoric-rise-in-grain-2019-07-11-world-grain.md) | +0.4% | -2.7% |

## Sources

- csis.org: https://www.csis.org/analysis/does-ukraine-need-new-black-sea-grain-initiative

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.