# Ceasefire or stalemate? Grain exports at risk in Black Sea deal - Food & Agribusiness

> The United States brokered a fragile Black Sea ceasefire to protect grain shipments, with Russia attaching conditions such as sanctions relief and SWIFT access. A grain ship was hit in an attack at Odesa earlier in March.

- Date: 2025-04-03 · published 2025-04-03T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: geopolitics · region Black Sea · magnitude high
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/14216-ceasefire-or-stalemate-grain-exports-at-risk-in-black-sea-deal-food-and
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Ocean Grain Freight](https://feedsoft.ai/c/OCEANFRT.md)

## Why it matters

If the ceasefire holds, wheat and corn export flows from the Black Sea would normalize and weigh on prices; collapse would tighten supplies and lift freight costs.

## Read by commodity

- CORN: neutral
- WHEAT: neutral
- OCEANFRT: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2025-04-08 | [Shipbrokers weigh the impact of a Black Sea peace deal on grain exports](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14212-shipbrokers-weigh-the-impact-of-a-black-sea-peace-deal-on-grain-exports.md) | +1.7% | +5.2% |
| WHEAT | 2018-11-29 | [Russia Does Not Expect Ukraine Crisis to Have Big Impact on Grain Exports - Business Insider](https://feedsoft.ai/events/61917-russia-does-not-expect-ukraine-crisis-to-have-big-impact-on-grain-exports.md) | +1.4% | +3.7% |
| WHEAT | 2025-03-28 | [Does Ukraine Need a New Black Sea Grain Initiative?](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14221-does-ukraine-need-a-new-black-sea-grain-initiative.md) | -1.4% | +2.0% |
| WHEAT | 2025-03-25 | [Russia says food and fertiliser sanctions must be lifted for Black Sea deal](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14220-russia-says-food-and-fertiliser-sanctions-must-be-lifted-for-black-sea-deal.md) | -1.9% | +1.7% |
| WHEAT | 2022-04-05 | [Supply shock caused by Russian invasion of Ukraine puts strain on various EU agri-food sectors](https://feedsoft.ai/events/41780-supply-shock-caused-by-russian-invasion-of-ukraine-puts-strain-on-various-eu.md) | -2.1% | +3.9% |
| CORN | 2025-03-25 | [Russia, Ukraine agree to avoid attacks on grain ships, energy infrastructure on Black Sea](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14219-russia-ukraine-agree-to-avoid-attacks-on-grain-ships-energy-infrastructure-on.md) | -1.5% | +3.1% |
| CORN | 2022-06-23 | [Prices for feed barley in Ukraine remain under pressure from lack of export demand 23.06.2022 - UkrAgroConsult](https://feedsoft.ai/events/41005-prices-for-feed-barley-in-ukraine-remain-under-pressure-from-lack-of-export.md) | +1.6% | -10.7% |
| CORN | 2022-04-05 | [Supply shock caused by Russian invasion of Ukraine puts strain on various EU agri-food sectors](https://feedsoft.ai/events/41780-supply-shock-caused-by-russian-invasion-of-ukraine-puts-strain-on-various-eu.md) | -2.1% | -5.3% |

## Sources

- foodagribusiness.world: https://www.foodagribusiness.world/feed/ceasefire-or-stalemate-grain-exports-at-risk-in-black-sea-deal

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.