# Black Sea Exports – News – SSY

> Black Sea wheat exports are 46% lower year-to-date than a year earlier according to vessel tracking, with Russia's export quota having kept early-2025 shipments artificially low. Sovecon forecasts 42.9 Mt of Russian exports for 2025/26, and Russia's export tax has fallen to zero for the first time since 2021.

- Date: 2025-07-16 · published 2025-07-16T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: trade · region Black Sea · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/14188-black-sea-exports-news-ssy
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Wheat (HRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/KWHEAT.md), [Ocean Grain Freight](https://feedsoft.ai/c/OCEANFRT.md)

## Why it matters

A weaker early-season export pace reduces Panamax and geared vessel demand out of the Black Sea in Q3 and Q4, while the zero export tax may encourage farmer selling that adds supply and pressures wheat prices.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bearish ▼
- KWHEAT: bearish ▼
- OCEANFRT: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2019-05-14 | [Increasing Black Sea exports are influencing price](https://feedsoft.ai/events/58941-increasing-black-sea-exports-are-influencing-price.md) | +11.5% | +10.0% |
| WHEAT | 2025-09-23 | [Russia’s wheat exports from Black Sea ports fall to 460kt](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14174-russia-s-wheat-exports-from-black-sea-ports-fall-to-460kt.md) | -0.2% | +1.8% |
| WHEAT | 2021-06-16 | [Black Sea Wheat Exports To Grow 5% In 2021/22 \| ESM Magazine](https://feedsoft.ai/events/46432-black-sea-wheat-exports-to-grow-5-in-2021-22-esm-magazine.md) | -8.0% | -12.7% |
| WHEAT | 2023-11-02 | [Russian Wheat Pushes Growth of Black Sea Dry Bulk Exports \| Dry bulk shipping news \| Shipping Telegraph](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14348-russian-wheat-pushes-growth-of-black-sea-dry-bulk-exports-dry-bulk-shipping.md) | -1.1% | -0.5% |
| WHEAT | 2022-07-22 | [Ukraine war: Deal signed to allow grain exports to resume by sea - BBC News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14474-ukraine-war-deal-signed-to-allow-grain-exports-to-resume-by-sea-bbc-news.md) | -10.2% | -1.7% |
| KWHEAT | 2022-07-22 | [Ukraine war: Deal signed to allow grain exports to resume by sea - BBC News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14474-ukraine-war-deal-signed-to-allow-grain-exports-to-resume-by-sea-bbc-news.md) | +3.3% | -5.7% |
| KWHEAT | 2016-11-21 | [Black Sea exports a burgeoning threat \| World-grain.com \| November 21, 2016 15:25 \| World Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/73782-black-sea-exports-a-burgeoning-threat-world-grain-com-november-21-2016-15-25.md) | -0.5% | +0.1% |
| KWHEAT | 2017-06-19 | [Russia 2017/18 wheat exports seen at record, Ukraine down 18% – Customs Today Newspaper](https://feedsoft.ai/events/70335-russia-2017-18-wheat-exports-seen-at-record-ukraine-down-18-customs-today.md) | -2.0% | +7.0% |

## Sources

- ssyglobal.com: https://www.ssyglobal.com/news/research/black-sea-exports

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.