# Ukraine’s grain export landscape — Breakwave Advisors

> Peace discussions involving Ukrainian, European and Russian representatives are active again, though the outcome is uncertain. USDA's December WASDE cut Ukraine's 2025/26 coarse grain exports to 25.5 MMT and wheat exports to 14.5 MMT, below pre-war norms.

- Date: 2025-12-24 · published 2025-12-24T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: geopolitics · region Ukraine · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/14152-ukraine-s-grain-export-landscape-breakwave-advisors
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Ocean Grain Freight](https://feedsoft.ai/c/OCEANFRT.md)

## Why it matters

A durable de-escalation could ease the export friction premium and lower freight and risk costs, which would be bearish for Ukrainian corn and wheat prices, while the trimmed USDA export outlook remains supportive.

## Read by commodity

- CORN: neutral
- WHEAT: neutral
- OCEANFRT: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2023-10-26 | [U.S. grains: Wheat up off two-week low on Ukraine export uncertainty - AgCanada](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33678-u-s-grains-wheat-up-off-two-week-low-on-ukraine-export-uncertainty-agcanada.md) | -3.5% | -3.6% |
| CORN | 2022-11-01 | [More grain ships leave Ukraine ports despite Russian suspension \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14440-more-grain-ships-leave-ukraine-ports-despite-russian-suspension-reuters.md) | +0.0% | -2.8% |
| CORN | 2024-06-22 | [How Russia Exports Ukrainian Grain As Its Own: An Investigation](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14290-how-russia-exports-ukrainian-grain-as-its-own-an-investigation.md) | -7.2% | -5.0% |
| CORN | 2019-07-11 | [Ukraine’s meteoric rise in grain \| 2019-07-11  \| World Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/57943-ukraine-s-meteoric-rise-in-grain-2019-07-11-world-grain.md) | +0.2% | -5.9% |
| CORN | 2023-03-13 | [Patchwork fixes to Ukraine grain shortfall leave world vulnerable a year into war](https://feedsoft.ai/events/36882-patchwork-fixes-to-ukraine-grain-shortfall-leave-world-vulnerable-a-year-into.md) | +0.8% | +0.8% |
| WHEAT | 2025-03-28 | [Does Ukraine Need a New Black Sea Grain Initiative?](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14221-does-ukraine-need-a-new-black-sea-grain-initiative.md) | -1.4% | +2.0% |
| WHEAT | 2022-11-01 | [More grain ships leave Ukraine ports despite Russian suspension \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14440-more-grain-ships-leave-ukraine-ports-despite-russian-suspension-reuters.md) | +7.3% | +7.7% |
| WHEAT | 2018-11-30 | [Grain exports not impacted by Russia, Ukraine tension \| 2018-11-30  \| World Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/61921-grain-exports-not-impacted-by-russia-ukraine-tension-2018-11-30-world-grain.md) | +2.7% | +3.1% |

## Sources

- breakwaveadvisors.com: https://www.breakwaveadvisors.com/insights/2025/12/24/ukraines-grain-export-landscape

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.