# Key changes in Russian wheat market for first half of MY 2025/26: 2026 preview - Fastmarkets

> Russia's 2025 wheat crop was confirmed by Rosstat at 91.36 million tonnes, the third-biggest on record. Exports were slow in the first half of the 2025/26 season, running 11-12% below last year, with cumulative wheat exports just above 25 million tonnes and a 20 million tonne grain export quota for February to June.

- Date: 2026-01-20 · published 2026-01-20T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region Russia · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/14146-key-changes-in-russian-wheat-market-for-first-half-of-my-2025-26-2026-preview
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Wheat (HRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/KWHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

A large Russian crop and ample exportable stocks add supply pressure to global wheat, though the quota limits near-term shipments and prices have been very stable.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bearish ▼
- KWHEAT: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2019-04-26 | [Size of Russian wheat crop takes toll on market - Farmers Weekly](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10961-size-of-russian-wheat-crop-takes-toll-on-market-farmers-weekly.md) | -3.9% | -0.9% |
| WHEAT | 2017-09-21 | [Russian wheat output shocks markets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/69003-russian-wheat-output-shocks-markets.md) | -6.6% | +3.1% |
| WHEAT | 2020-03-26 | [Morning Market Review for March 26, 2020 - HighLine Grain Growers, Inc](https://feedsoft.ai/events/11212-morning-market-review-for-march-26-2020-highline-grain-growers-inc.md) | +1.9% | +2.0% |
| WHEAT | 2025-02-06 | [Australia harvested 2 million tons of wheat more than forecast in 2024/25 MY](https://feedsoft.ai/events/26019-australia-harvested-2-million-tons-of-wheat-more-than-forecast-in-2024-25-my.md) | -0.7% | -3.6% |
| WHEAT | 2020-12-01 | [APW/ASW spread narrows as Australia set for high-protein wheat crop - Fastmarkets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/49693-apw-asw-spread-narrows-as-australia-set-for-high-protein-wheat-crop-fastmarkets.md) | +9.5% | +8.9% |
| KWHEAT | 2025-08-22 | [Grain market review: Wheat \| World Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/23378-grain-market-review-wheat-world-grain.md) | -3.3% | +0.8% |
| KWHEAT | 2025-02-07 | [SovEcon raises 2025/26 Russian wheat export forecast amid higher beginning stocks \| Miller Magazine](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14232-sovecon-raises-2025-26-russian-wheat-export-forecast-amid-higher-beginning.md) | -1.5% | -9.3% |
| KWHEAT | 2025-05-14 | [USDA forecasts lower wheat, corn, sorghum prices for 2025/26](https://feedsoft.ai/events/24718-usda-forecasts-lower-wheat-corn-sorghum-prices-for-2025-26.md) | +6.8% | +4.8% |

## Sources

- fastmarkets.com: https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/key-changes-in-russian-wheat-market-for-first-half-of-my-2025-26-2026-preview/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.