# Black Sea gridlock, a building El Niño and the US-China soybean gamble | World Ports Organization

> Ukrainian and Russian seaports handle about 30% of global wheat exports, and deep-sea loadings at Odesa, Chornomorsk and Pivdennyi remain frozen after strikes. Kpler estimates Russian export capacity at 2 to 2.5 million tonnes a month excluding Kavkaz. A strengthening El Niño threatens Australian wheat and Brazilian soybean yields, and US soybean purchases from China continue.

- Date: 2026-08-28 · published 2026-08-28T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude high
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/14092-black-sea-gridlock-a-building-el-nino-and-the-us-china-soybean-gamble-world
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Soybean Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBM.md)

## Why it matters

Frozen Black Sea loadings and El Niño yield risks both support wheat prices, while China's continued soybean buying supports soybean demand.

## Read by commodity

- SBM: bullish ▲
- SOY: bullish ▲
- WHEAT: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2020-11-05 | [French grain exports to China increase as Black Sea prices surge \| S&P Global](https://feedsoft.ai/events/50042-french-grain-exports-to-china-increase-as-black-sea-prices-surge-s-and-p-global.md) | +0.4% | -6.0% |
| WHEAT | 2023-05-29 | [Corn, Soybeans and Wheat in the Grips of Drought - AgWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13276-corn-soybeans-and-wheat-in-the-grips-of-drought-agweb.md) | -1.4% | -1.7% |
| WHEAT | 2023-08-07 | [El Niño: Anticipatory Action and Response Plan, August-December 2023 - Mitigating the expected impacts of El Niño-induced climate extremes on agriculture and food security - World \| ReliefWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34472-el-nino-anticipatory-action-and-response-plan-august-december-2023-mitigating.md) | +0.5% | -6.9% |
| WHEAT | 2023-07-19 | [China Brief 96 \| Worst weather in a decade disrupts China's crops, Exports to China surge and more Canada West FoundationCanada West Foundation](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34988-china-brief-96-worst-weather-in-a-decade-disrupts-china-s-crops-exports-to.md) | +1.6% | +0.1% |
| WHEAT | 2021-08-23 | [Prices for Ukrainian grain have increased in ports \| Ukrainian and World Shipping News - Ukrainian Shipping Magazine - Ukrainian and World Shipping News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/45403-prices-for-ukrainian-grain-have-increased-in-ports-ukrainian-and-world-shipping.md) | +1.1% | +5.4% |
| SOY | 2026-10-06 | [Latin America’s commodity exporters face El Niño, costly freight and a shifting US trade picture \| World Ports Organization](https://feedsoft.ai/events/16758-latin-america-s-commodity-exporters-face-el-nino-costly-freight-and-a-shifting.md) | -1.2% | -6.4% |
| SOY | 2021-01-01 | [The Impact of Preseason La Niña Episodes on Corn and Soybean Yields in Brazil and Argentina](https://feedsoft.ai/events/49571-the-impact-of-preseason-la-nina-episodes-on-corn-and-soybean-yields-in-brazil.md) | +4.6% | +3.8% |
| SOY | 2020-08-26 | [Soybeans up on weather, demand from China - Brownfield Ag News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/51480-soybeans-up-on-weather-demand-from-china-brownfield-ag-news.md) | +4.5% | +11.0% |

## Sources

- worldports.org: https://www.worldports.org/black-sea-gridlock-a-building-el-nino-and-the-us-china-soybean-gamble/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.