# Corn and soybean supply at risk: South America 2026 South America weather risk puts global corn and soybean supply on edge | Kpler - Feb 24, 2026

> Kpler expects Brazil's 2025-26 soybean crop to reach about 180 million tonnes, a record, with harvest about 25% complete. Below-average rain in Rio Grande do Sul raises yield concerns for crops in pod-fill, and Brazilian export offers are priced well below US Gulf values.

- Date: 2026-02-24 · published 2026-02-24T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Brazil · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/13808-corn-and-soybean-supply-at-risk-south-america-2026-south-america-weather-risk
- Commodities: [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybean Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBM.md)

## Why it matters

Brazil's record crop and competitive export pricing add supply pressure on world soybean markets. Dryness in southern Brazil is a risk that could tighten supply and support prices if it worsens.

## Read by commodity

- SBM: neutral
- SOY: neutral
- CORN: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SOY | 2017-12-14 | [South American crop and weather update - Morning Ag Clips](https://feedsoft.ai/events/67327-south-american-crop-and-weather-update-morning-ag-clips.md) | -2.6% | -3.6% |
| SOY | 2019-06-11 | [In-season weather data give reliable estimates of corn and soybean yields \| South Dakota Business](https://feedsoft.ai/events/58456-in-season-weather-data-give-reliable-estimates-of-corn-and-soybean-yields-south.md) | +6.3% | +2.8% |
| SOY | 2025-11-03 | [2025: Year of Extreme Weather, Corn Disease and Worry in Illinois \| Illinois Soybean Association](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13039-2025-year-of-extreme-weather-corn-disease-and-worry-in-illinois-illinois.md) | +0.2% | +2.6% |
| SOY | 2024-12-09 | [Weather made for a challenging year for corn and soybean farmers - Agweek \| #1 source for agriculture news, farming, markets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13131-weather-made-for-a-challenging-year-for-corn-and-soybean-farmers-agweek-1.md) | -0.6% | -0.2% |
| SOY | 2021-08-27 | [Potential Brazil corn and soybean production in 2021/22](https://feedsoft.ai/events/45432-potential-brazil-corn-and-soybean-production-in-2021-22.md) | -6.5% | -6.0% |
| CORN | 2018-01-19 | [GRAIN MARKETS: Soybeans step higher on South American weather](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12099-grain-markets-soybeans-step-higher-on-south-american-weather.md) | +0.7% | +2.0% |
| CORN | 2017-12-14 | [South American crop and weather update - Morning Ag Clips](https://feedsoft.ai/events/67327-south-american-crop-and-weather-update-morning-ag-clips.md) | +2.3% | +2.4% |
| CORN | 2019-06-11 | [In-season weather data give reliable estimates of corn and soybean yields \| South Dakota Business](https://feedsoft.ai/events/58456-in-season-weather-data-give-reliable-estimates-of-corn-and-soybean-yields-south.md) | +6.2% | +3.2% |

## Sources

- kpler.com: https://www.kpler.com/blog/south-america-weather-risk-puts-global-corn-and-soybean-supply-on-edge

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.