# El Nino Favors South American Soy Crop; Northern Brazil Outlook Less Rosy

> Analysts expect El Nino to bring above-average rain to southern Brazil and Argentina while drying the north. Brazil could reach a record soybean crop near 160 million tons in 2023/24, and Argentina's output could nearly double.

- Date: 2023-08-25 · published 2023-08-25T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Brazil · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/13635-el-nino-favors-south-american-soy-crop-northern-brazil-outlook-less-rosy
- Commodities: [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Soybean Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBM.md)

## Why it matters

A record Brazil crop and an Argentine rebound would raise global soybean and meal export supply, which is bearish for soy complex prices.

## Read by commodity

- SBM: bearish ▼
- SOY: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SOY | 2023-08-31 | [El Nino should benefit South American crops \| The Western Producer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13634-el-nino-should-benefit-south-american-crops-the-western-producer.md) | -2.6% | -5.8% |
| SOY | 2016-11-18 | [Favorable weather outlook for South America - Brownfield Ag News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/73776-favorable-weather-outlook-for-south-america-brownfield-ag-news.md) | +5.7% | +4.8% |
| SOY | 2019-11-19 | [An Early Look at South American Crops](https://feedsoft.ai/events/55874-an-early-look-at-south-american-crops.md) | -2.0% | +2.0% |
| SOY | 2017-12-22 | [Ag Weather Forum: Favorable South America Rain Outlook \| La Niña Ready Nations](https://feedsoft.ai/events/67403-ag-weather-forum-favorable-south-america-rain-outlook-la-nina-ready-nations.md) | +0.3% | +4.0% |
| SOY | 2026-03-12 | [Brazil Crop, Midwest Weather Outlook for Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13012-brazil-crop-midwest-weather-outlook-for-soybeans.md) | -3.2% | -2.9% |
| SBM | 2016-11-18 | [Favorable weather outlook for South America - Brownfield Ag News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/73776-favorable-weather-outlook-for-south-america-brownfield-ag-news.md) | +3.0% | +1.8% |
| SBM | 2019-11-19 | [An Early Look at South American Crops](https://feedsoft.ai/events/55874-an-early-look-at-south-american-crops.md) | -1.0% | +0.4% |
| SBM | 2017-12-22 | [Ag Weather Forum: Favorable South America Rain Outlook \| La Niña Ready Nations](https://feedsoft.ai/events/67403-ag-weather-forum-favorable-south-america-rain-outlook-la-nina-ready-nations.md) | -0.5% | +8.1% |

## Sources

- agriculture.com: https://www.agriculture.com/el-nino-favors-south-american-soy-crop-northern-brazil-outlook-less-rosy-7852874

---
Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.