# Have Brazilian soybean estimates slipped too far from reality?

> Hot and dry weather in key Brazilian growing areas may have ended the chance of a record soybean crop. The article questions whether analysts' estimates have fallen too far and whether the market tends to overcut crop forecasts this early in the season.

- Date: 2024-01-18 · published 2024-01-18T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Brazil · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/13595-have-brazilian-soybean-estimates-slipped-too-far-from-reality
- Commodities: [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Soybean Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBM.md)

## Why it matters

Uncertainty over how much Brazil's crop has been reduced leaves soybean and meal prices sensitive to any revision in either direction.

## Read by commodity

- SBM: neutral
- SOY: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SOY | 2026-04-12 | [Brazil Soybean Harvest Nears Completion \| Red River Farm Network](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13442-brazil-soybean-harvest-nears-completion-red-river-farm-network.md) | -0.7% | +1.6% |
| SOY | 2022-12-26 | [Brazil Soybeans Benefit from Rain North, Hurt by Dryness Far South](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13679-brazil-soybeans-benefit-from-rain-north-hurt-by-dryness-far-south.md) | +0.6% | +1.6% |
| SOY | 2023-01-19 | [Brazil Soybeans 0.6% Harvested, Wet Weather Slows Early Harvest](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13673-brazil-soybeans-0-6-harvested-wet-weather-slows-early-harvest.md) | -1.4% | +0.1% |
| SOY | 2018-01-26 | [Daily rains slow Brazil’s early bean harvest](https://feedsoft.ai/events/66830-daily-rains-slow-brazil-s-early-bean-harvest.md) | -0.7% | +4.4% |
| SOY | 2019-12-26 | [Brazil Corn and Soybeans Developing Nicely \| Red River Farm Network](https://feedsoft.ai/events/55420-brazil-corn-and-soybeans-developing-nicely-red-river-farm-network.md) | +0.8% | -3.7% |
| SBM | 2022-12-26 | [Brazil Soybeans Benefit from Rain North, Hurt by Dryness Far South](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13679-brazil-soybeans-benefit-from-rain-north-hurt-by-dryness-far-south.md) | +5.7% | +2.5% |
| SBM | 2026-04-06 | [Climate concerns second corn crop and soybean harvest advances to 82% in Brazil](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13439-climate-concerns-second-corn-crop-and-soybean-harvest-advances-to-82-in-brazil.md) | +4.0% | +2.7% |
| SBM | 2018-01-26 | [Daily rains slow Brazil’s early bean harvest](https://feedsoft.ai/events/66830-daily-rains-slow-brazil-s-early-bean-harvest.md) | -1.9% | +10.3% |

## Sources

- reuters.com: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/have-brazilian-soybean-estimates-slipped-too-far-reality-2024-01-18/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.