# La Niña looms over Brazil, raising fears of drought in the South

> La Niña is expected to develop as early as October and last until February 2026, with NOAA giving a 71% chance. Meteorologists warn of reduced rainfall and drought risk in Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina, which could hit soybean, coffee and fruit crops.

- Date: 2025-09-15 · published 2025-09-15T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Brazil · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/13474-la-nina-looms-over-brazil-raising-fears-of-drought-in-the-south
- Commodities: [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Soybean Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBM.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md)

## Why it matters

A La Niña drought risk in southern Brazil threatens the 2025/26 soybean crop and would tighten soymeal and soy oil supply, supporting prices.

## Read by commodity

- SBM: bullish ▲
- SOY: bullish ▲
- CORN: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SOY | 2022-10-06 | [Is La Nina Returning to Southern Brazil?](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13696-is-la-nina-returning-to-southern-brazil.md) | +1.9% | +5.1% |
| SOY | 2023-02-14 | [Brazil drought threatening national output potential, southern farmers say](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13664-brazil-drought-threatening-national-output-potential-southern-farmers-say.md) | +0.4% | -2.8% |
| SOY | 2021-12-26 | [Withering crops highlight La Niña fears for Brazil soy farmers - BusinessWorld Online](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13761-withering-crops-highlight-la-nina-fears-for-brazil-soy-farmers-businessworld.md) | -0.2% | +5.3% |
| SOY | 2023-02-17 | [Weather factors in South America: Drought in Argentina and excess rainfall in Brazil weigh on markets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13669-weather-factors-in-south-america-drought-in-argentina-and-excess-rainfall-in.md) | +0.2% | -3.3% |
| SOY | 2023-01-10 | [Drought in Southern Brazil while Excess Wetness in Central Brazil](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13675-drought-in-southern-brazil-while-excess-wetness-in-central-brazil.md) | +2.4% | +0.8% |
| SBM | 2023-02-14 | [Brazil drought threatening national output potential, southern farmers say](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13664-brazil-drought-threatening-national-output-potential-southern-farmers-say.md) | -2.3% | -2.7% |
| SBM | 2021-12-26 | [Withering crops highlight La Niña fears for Brazil soy farmers - BusinessWorld Online](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13761-withering-crops-highlight-la-nina-fears-for-brazil-soy-farmers-businessworld.md) | +1.1% | -0.3% |
| SBM | 2023-01-10 | [Drought in Southern Brazil while Excess Wetness in Central Brazil](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13675-drought-in-southern-brazil-while-excess-wetness-in-central-brazil.md) | +2.5% | -1.8% |

## Sources

- valorinternational.globo.com: https://valorinternational.globo.com/agribusiness/news/2025/09/15/la-nina-looms-over-brazil-raising-fears-of-drought-in-the-south.ghtml

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.