# Historic El Niño puts Brazil crops at risk as Argentina gains a weather edge

> NOAA gives a 69% chance that El Niño reaches a historic threshold in October-December 2026, with July Niño-3.4 readings at +1.4°C. Brazil and Argentina enter the 2026-27 planting season facing sharply different weather risks.

- Date: 2026-10-01 · published 2026-10-01T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Brazil · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/13420-historic-el-nino-puts-brazil-crops-at-risk-as-argentina-gains-a-weather-edge
- Commodities: [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybean Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBM.md)

## Why it matters

A strong El Niño could cut Brazilian soybean and corn output, tightening global supply and supporting prices, while favorable conditions in Argentina could add exports and offset some of that tightness.

## Read by commodity

- SBM: bullish ▲
- SOY: bullish ▲
- CORN: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SOY | 2019-01-09 | [Brazil, Argentina Crop Weather Update](https://feedsoft.ai/events/61025-brazil-argentina-crop-weather-update.md) | -1.4% | +1.7% |
| SOY | 2019-02-06 | [Brazil, Argentina Crop Weather Update](https://feedsoft.ai/events/60441-brazil-argentina-crop-weather-update.md) | -0.3% | -3.3% |
| SOY | 2019-09-12 | [Column: Brazil's upcoming soy, corn crops at risk amid historically dry weather \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/56901-column-brazil-s-upcoming-soy-corn-crops-at-risk-amid-historically-dry-weather.md) | +4.1% | +8.2% |
| SOY | 2025-10-03 | [Central Brazil Soybeans at Risk With Continued Dry Weather](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13464-central-brazil-soybeans-at-risk-with-continued-dry-weather.md) | -0.1% | +6.6% |
| SOY | 2019-01-18 | [Soybeans Close Higher as Hot Weather Persists in Brazil](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12390-soybeans-close-higher-as-hot-weather-persists-in-brazil.md) | +1.9% | -0.0% |
| CORN | 2019-01-09 | [Brazil, Argentina Crop Weather Update](https://feedsoft.ai/events/61025-brazil-argentina-crop-weather-update.md) | -1.5% | +0.6% |
| CORN | 2019-09-12 | [Column: Brazil's upcoming soy, corn crops at risk amid historically dry weather \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/56901-column-brazil-s-upcoming-soy-corn-crops-at-risk-amid-historically-dry-weather.md) | +4.8% | +9.0% |
| CORN | 2019-01-18 | [Soybeans Close Higher as Hot Weather Persists in Brazil](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12390-soybeans-close-higher-as-hot-weather-persists-in-brazil.md) | -0.5% | +0.8% |

## Sources

- agrolatam.com: https://www.agrolatam.com/usa/weather/historic-el-nino-brazil-argentina-us-corn-soybean-markets/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.