# A Voz Do Mercado Debate Riscos Do El Niño Para A Safra 2026/27 | Bela Cereais

> Brazilian market experts discussed El Niño, which is already established in the Pacific and expected to strengthen, at a September 16 event. NOAA gives over 90% odds of a very strong event, with peak expected October to December during the planting of the summer crop.

- Date: 2026-09-16 · published 2026-09-16T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Brazil · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/13418-a-voz-do-mercado-debate-riscos-do-el-nino-para-a-safra-2026-27-bela-cereais
- Commodities: [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Barge Freight (St. Louis)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BARGE.md)

## Why it matters

Irregular rain in the Midwest and Matopiba, heat, and low river levels threaten yields and barge logistics for corn and soybeans, a supply risk that tends to support feed grain and meal prices.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: bullish ▲
- CORN: bullish ▲
- BARGE: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SOY | 2025-12-29 | [Safra 2025/26 Começa Com Clima Irregular E Avanço Mais Lento Do Plantio \| Bela Cereais](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13455-safra-2025-26-comeca-com-clima-irregular-e-avanco-mais-lento-do-plantio-bela.md) | -1.1% | +0.8% |
| SOY | 2026-08-26 | [El Niño/La Niña Update (August 2026)](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17828-el-nino-la-nina-update-august-2026.md) | +6.4% | +7.3% |
| SOY | 2026-05-21 | [What a Possible 2026/27 Super El Niño Means for Commodity Markets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19191-what-a-possible-2026-27-super-el-nino-means-for-commodity-markets.md) | -0.4% | -6.4% |
| SOY | 2020-05-28 | [El Niño / La Niña Update (May 2020)](https://feedsoft.ai/events/53044-el-nino-la-nina-update-may-2020.md) | +1.1% | +2.6% |
| SOY | 2026-07-27 | [INFOGRAPHIC: El Niño may lead to global food supply volatility in 2026-27 \| S&P Global](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18244-infographic-el-nino-may-lead-to-global-food-supply-volatility-in-2026-27-s-and.md) | -6.1% | -1.8% |
| CORN | 2025-12-29 | [Safra 2025/26 Começa Com Clima Irregular E Avanço Mais Lento Do Plantio \| Bela Cereais](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13455-safra-2025-26-comeca-com-clima-irregular-e-avanco-mais-lento-do-plantio-bela.md) | -1.0% | -2.7% |
| CORN | 2026-08-26 | [El Niño/La Niña Update (August 2026)](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17828-el-nino-la-nina-update-august-2026.md) | +3.3% | +5.7% |
| CORN | 2026-05-21 | [What a Possible 2026/27 Super El Niño Means for Commodity Markets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19191-what-a-possible-2026-27-super-el-nino-means-for-commodity-markets.md) | -1.7% | -7.1% |

## Sources

- belacereais.com.br: https://belacereais.com.br/en/2026/safra/a-voz-do-mercado-debate-riscos-do-el-nino-para-a-safra-2026-27/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.