# El Niño and Brazil’s Second-Season Corn: Should We Be Concerned?

> An analysis piece notes that about 80% of Brazil's corn is grown as a second-season safrinha crop planted right after soybean harvest. It cites NOAA's estimate of a 75% chance that the current El Niño will be the strongest since 1950 during October through December, the soybean planting period. Delayed soybean planting could push safrinha corn planting past the low-risk window.

- Date: 2026-10-14 · published 2026-10-14T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Brazil · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/13413-el-nino-and-brazil-s-second-season-corn-should-we-be-concerned
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md)

## Why it matters

A late safrinha crop is more exposed to weather stress during flowering and grain fill, which could tighten Brazilian corn and feed supplies and support prices.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: bullish ▲
- CORN: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2018-05-04 | [Corn ETF Surged on Brazilian Weather Concerns](https://feedsoft.ai/events/64863-corn-etf-surged-on-brazilian-weather-concerns.md) | +0.8% | +0.6% |
| CORN | 2026-07-31 | [Weather may delay Brazil’s second corn crop harvest](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13426-weather-may-delay-brazil-s-second-corn-crop-harvest.md) | -1.6% | +9.4% |
| CORN | 2026-04-06 | [Climate concerns second corn crop and soybean harvest advances to 82% in Brazil](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13439-climate-concerns-second-corn-crop-and-soybean-harvest-advances-to-82-in-brazil.md) | -1.8% | +2.8% |
| CORN | 2022-03-24 | [Mixed Weather Conditions for Second-Crop Corn in Brazil](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13733-mixed-weather-conditions-for-second-crop-corn-in-brazil.md) | +1.8% | +8.1% |
| CORN | 2019-12-10 | [Brazil's Planting Season Ends Dry, U.S. Corn Harvest Ending Cold](https://feedsoft.ai/events/55418-brazil-s-planting-season-ends-dry-u-s-corn-harvest-ending-cold.md) | +4.3% | +3.9% |
| SOY | 2019-12-10 | [Brazil's Planting Season Ends Dry, U.S. Corn Harvest Ending Cold](https://feedsoft.ai/events/55418-brazil-s-planting-season-ends-dry-u-s-corn-harvest-ending-cold.md) | +2.8% | +4.6% |
| SOY | 2019-09-13 | [Brazil's soybean and corn sowing seasons delayed because of very dry conditions — MercoPress](https://feedsoft.ai/events/56904-brazil-s-soybean-and-corn-sowing-seasons-delayed-because-of-very-dry-conditions.md) | +1.1% | +4.6% |
| SOY | 2024-07-03 | [Brazil’s Second Corn Crop Slightly Smaller Amid Drought](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13560-brazil-s-second-corn-crop-slightly-smaller-amid-drought.md) | -2.0% | -11.7% |

## Sources

- southernagtoday.org: https://southernagtoday.org/2026/10/14/el-nino-and-brazils-second-season-corn-should-we-be-concerned/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.