# The U.S. Now Has a Nearly 90% Chance of Seeing El Niño This Summer - AgWeb

> NOAA reports that El Niño signals strengthened in May 2023, with the likelihood of El Niño approaching 90% by summer. USDA's May forecast already assumed normal or favorable weather for record corn and soybean yields. Forecasters say weather is the main risk to the new crop balance sheets.

- Date: 2023-05-24 · published 2023-05-24T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region US · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/13279-the-u-s-now-has-a-nearly-90-chance-of-seeing-el-nino-this-summer-agweb
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

El Niño often brings a weather shift to the US and other key grain regions, adding uncertainty to yield assumptions and supporting risk premiums in corn and soybean prices.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: bullish ▲
- CORN: bullish ▲
- WHEAT: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2026-03-13 | [El Niño Watch: 62% Chance of Arrival This Summer, But Drew Lerner Warns Extreme Forecasts May Be Overblown - AgWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20087-el-nino-watch-62-chance-of-arrival-this-summer-but-drew-lerner-warns-extreme.md) | +4.1% | -0.9% |
| CORN | 2026-01-21 | [Timing of La Niña Exit, El Niño Entrance is Unclear, Raising Questions About Dryness for Spring and Summer - AgWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20954-timing-of-la-nina-exit-el-nino-entrance-is-unclear-raising-questions-about.md) | +0.8% | +0.6% |
| CORN | 2026-10-02 | [Record El Niño Behind Historic Rains Stalling Harvest Across the U.S. - AgWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12955-record-el-nino-behind-historic-rains-stalling-harvest-across-the-u-s-agweb.md) | -1.6% | -7.0% |
| CORN | 2017-05-19 | [El Niño again? This is why it’s hard to tell. \| Climate Change](https://feedsoft.ai/events/70915-el-nino-again-this-is-why-it-s-hard-to-tell-climate-change.md) | +1.3% | +2.6% |
| CORN | 2026-05-14 | [US forecaster says El Nino has 82% chance of developing by July \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19187-us-forecaster-says-el-nino-has-82-chance-of-developing-by-july-reuters.md) | -0.4% | -7.9% |
| SOY | 2026-03-13 | [El Niño Watch: 62% Chance of Arrival This Summer, But Drew Lerner Warns Extreme Forecasts May Be Overblown - AgWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20087-el-nino-watch-62-chance-of-arrival-this-summer-but-drew-lerner-warns-extreme.md) | -3.7% | -3.1% |
| SOY | 2026-01-21 | [Timing of La Niña Exit, El Niño Entrance is Unclear, Raising Questions About Dryness for Spring and Summer - AgWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20954-timing-of-la-nina-exit-el-nino-entrance-is-unclear-raising-questions-about.md) | +1.4% | +7.6% |
| SOY | 2026-10-02 | [Record El Niño Behind Historic Rains Stalling Harvest Across the U.S. - AgWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12955-record-el-nino-behind-historic-rains-stalling-harvest-across-the-u-s-agweb.md) | +0.3% | -5.0% |

## Sources

- agweb.com: https://www.agweb.com/news/crops/crop-production/u-s-now-has-nearly-90-chance-seeing-el-nino-summer

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.