# ERS Research Models Future Effects of Climate Change on Corn and Soybean Yields, Production, and Exports | Economic Research Service

> USDA's Economic Research Service modeled how climate-linked temperature and precipitation changes could affect US corn and soybean yields through 2036. The model projects slowly rising corn yields, falling soybean yields, and a combined export loss of up to $256 million.

- Date: 2024-03-04 · published 2024-03-04T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region US · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/13199-ers-research-models-future-effects-of-climate-change-on-corn-and-soybean-yields
- Commodities: [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md)

## Why it matters

The projection suggests a long-run tilt toward lower soybean supply and exports, but the effects are gradual and modest. It is unlikely to move near-term prices.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: neutral
- CORN: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SOY | 2019-05-30 | [Expert indicates how to minimize climate effects on soybeans and corn - Revista Cultivar](https://feedsoft.ai/events/58928-expert-indicates-how-to-minimize-climate-effects-on-soybeans-and-corn-revista.md) | -0.3% | +2.6% |
| SOY | 2019-02-18 | [UMD Researchers and Alums Pioneer Innovative New Agricultural Productivity Analyses with Insight into Climate Change \| College of Agriculture & Natural Resources at UMD](https://feedsoft.ai/events/60453-umd-researchers-and-alums-pioneer-innovative-new-agricultural-productivity.md) | +0.5% | -0.2% |
| SOY | 2023-02-01 | [Contrasting impacts of dry versus humid heat on US corn and soybean yields](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13304-contrasting-impacts-of-dry-versus-humid-heat-on-us-corn-and-soybean-yields.md) | -1.5% | -2.2% |
| SOY | 2018-04-03 | [Study: Climate effects on ag yields vary by location, crop](https://feedsoft.ai/events/65364-study-climate-effects-on-ag-yields-vary-by-location-crop.md) | +1.1% | +0.2% |
| SOY | 2019-06-11 | [In-season weather data give reliable estimates of corn and soybean yields \| South Dakota Business](https://feedsoft.ai/events/58456-in-season-weather-data-give-reliable-estimates-of-corn-and-soybean-yields-south.md) | +6.3% | +2.8% |
| CORN | 2019-05-30 | [Expert indicates how to minimize climate effects on soybeans and corn - Revista Cultivar](https://feedsoft.ai/events/58928-expert-indicates-how-to-minimize-climate-effects-on-soybeans-and-corn-revista.md) | -0.9% | +6.0% |
| CORN | 2019-02-18 | [UMD Researchers and Alums Pioneer Innovative New Agricultural Productivity Analyses with Insight into Climate Change \| College of Agriculture & Natural Resources at UMD](https://feedsoft.ai/events/60453-umd-researchers-and-alums-pioneer-innovative-new-agricultural-productivity.md) | +0.0% | -0.2% |
| CORN | 2023-02-01 | [Contrasting impacts of dry versus humid heat on US corn and soybean yields](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13304-contrasting-impacts-of-dry-versus-humid-heat-on-us-corn-and-soybean-yields.md) | +1.2% | -4.9% |

## Sources

- ers.usda.gov: https://ers.usda.gov/amber-waves/2024/march/ers-research-models-future-effects-of-climate-change-on-corn-and-soybean-yields-production-and-exports

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.