# El Nino Analogs for U.S. Corn Belt JUN-SEP - Climate Impact Company

> Climate Impact Company reports that 73.7% of the US is in dry-to-drought conditions, with D3 extreme drought in key Corn Belt states. A transition from La Niña to El Niño is expected in mid-to-late 2026. Analog years 1997 and 2023 point to worsening drought risk in Iowa and the Gulf States for June through September.

- Date: 2026-02-22 · published 2026-02-22T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region US · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/13018-el-nino-analogs-for-u-s-corn-belt-jun-sep-climate-impact-company
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md)

## Why it matters

A forecast of worsening summer drought in Iowa and the Gulf States would raise the risk of crop losses and lift corn and soybean prices. The analogs are preliminary and only a few years, so the signal is uncertain.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: bullish ▲
- CORN: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2025-09-15 | [Flip to El Nino in 2026 Increasingly Confident - Climate Impact Company](https://feedsoft.ai/events/22794-flip-to-el-nino-in-2026-increasingly-confident-climate-impact-company.md) | +5.1% | +2.8% |
| CORN | 2023-01-27 | [Watching Northwest/North Brazil Second Corn Crop for Drought Risk - Climate Impact Company](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13674-watching-northwest-north-brazil-second-corn-crop-for-drought-risk-climate.md) | -1.1% | -1.9% |
| CORN | 2024-02-09 | [Climate, Conflict and Currency Impact Cost Competitiveness for U.S. Corn Exports - Oklahoma Farm Report](https://feedsoft.ai/events/16565-climate-conflict-and-currency-impact-cost-competitiveness-for-u-s-corn-exports.md) | -2.2% | +2.9% |
| CORN | 2021-09-02 | [Climate Forecast Catalysts to Produce a Wet Spring Forecast for Brazil Are Not Developing - Climate Impact Company](https://feedsoft.ai/events/44990-climate-forecast-catalysts-to-produce-a-wet-spring-forecast-for-brazil-are-not.md) | -3.0% | -5.5% |
| CORN | 2019-11-07 | [Global Soil Moisture Anomalies And 3-Month Trend - Climate Impact Company](https://feedsoft.ai/events/55986-global-soil-moisture-anomalies-and-3-month-trend-climate-impact-company.md) | -0.6% | -1.0% |
| SOY | 2025-09-15 | [Flip to El Nino in 2026 Increasingly Confident - Climate Impact Company](https://feedsoft.ai/events/22794-flip-to-el-nino-in-2026-increasingly-confident-climate-impact-company.md) | -0.0% | -1.9% |
| SOY | 2023-01-27 | [Watching Northwest/North Brazil Second Corn Crop for Drought Risk - Climate Impact Company](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13674-watching-northwest-north-brazil-second-corn-crop-for-drought-risk-climate.md) | +0.7% | +0.4% |
| SOY | 2021-09-02 | [Climate Forecast Catalysts to Produce a Wet Spring Forecast for Brazil Are Not Developing - Climate Impact Company](https://feedsoft.ai/events/44990-climate-forecast-catalysts-to-produce-a-wet-spring-forecast-for-brazil-are-not.md) | -1.5% | -1.7% |

## Sources

- climateimpactcompany.com: https://climateimpactcompany.com/ag-market-sunday-weather-climate-report-current-u-s-soil-moisture-el-nino-and-potential-jun-sep-rainfall-pattern-brazil-rains-and-new-south-wales-new-heat-and-dryness-2/

---
Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.