# Transition to El Nino signals drought relief, but global crop disruption looms - Pro Farmer

> The NOAA Climate Prediction Center gives an 82% chance that El Niño forms within three months and persists into winter 2026-2027. USDA's Brad Rippey says El Niño could bring drought relief to the Southern Plains later in the year but is unlikely to affect the Corn Belt this summer. The pattern is expected to bring tougher conditions to South America, Australia, Brazil and India.

- Date: 2026-05-21 · published 2026-05-21T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/12995-transition-to-el-nino-signals-drought-relief-but-global-crop-disruption-looms
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Soybean Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBM.md), [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md)

## Why it matters

Expected El Niño dryness in Australia, Brazil and India could tighten global grain and oilseed supplies, supporting export prices and feed-ingredient costs later in the year.

## Read by commodity

- SBM: bullish ▲
- SOY: bullish ▲
- CORN: bullish ▲
- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- PALMOIL: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2026-03-12 | [El Niño Threatens Higher Global Temperatures, Crop Disruption This Year - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20085-el-nino-threatens-higher-global-temperatures-crop-disruption-this-year-bloomberg.md) | +3.7% | +0.5% |
| CORN | 2021-12-03 | [La Nina Is Set to Deliver Drought to Argentina’s Soybean Crop - AgriBusiness Global](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14064-la-nina-is-set-to-deliver-drought-to-argentina-s-soybean-crop-agribusiness.md) | +7.1% | +2.4% |
| CORN | 2023-06-29 | [US Midwest drought expands, but forecast rains offer relief to crops \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13268-us-midwest-drought-expands-but-forecast-rains-offer-relief-to-crops-reuters.md) | -2.5% | +2.0% |
| CORN | 2026-02-12 | [Drought Monitor shows conditions intensify across the lower 48 - Pro Farmer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13016-drought-monitor-shows-conditions-intensify-across-the-lower-48-pro-farmer.md) | -0.0% | +3.5% |
| CORN | 2020-11-10 | [U.S. corn crop’s growing sensitivity to drought revealed - Future Farming](https://feedsoft.ai/events/49988-u-s-corn-crop-s-growing-sensitivity-to-drought-revealed-future-farming.md) | +9.7% | +8.7% |
| SOY | 2026-03-12 | [El Niño Threatens Higher Global Temperatures, Crop Disruption This Year - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20085-el-nino-threatens-higher-global-temperatures-crop-disruption-this-year-bloomberg.md) | -3.2% | -2.9% |
| SOY | 2021-12-03 | [La Nina Is Set to Deliver Drought to Argentina’s Soybean Crop - AgriBusiness Global](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14064-la-nina-is-set-to-deliver-drought-to-argentina-s-soybean-crop-agribusiness.md) | +1.6% | +6.8% |
| SOY | 2023-06-29 | [US Midwest drought expands, but forecast rains offer relief to crops \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13268-us-midwest-drought-expands-but-forecast-rains-offer-relief-to-crops-reuters.md) | +5.2% | +5.6% |

## Sources

- profarmer.com: https://www.profarmer.com/news/transition-el-nino-signals-drought-relief-global-crop-disruption-looms

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.