# Will It Be Deja Vu on the Lower Mississippi River This Fall?

> The Mississippi River at Memphis was minus 4.58 feet on Aug. 28, with St. Louis at minus 1.02 feet and forecast to fall to minus 3.3 feet by Sept. 1. Safety restrictions are in place, barge drafts are cut to 10 feet 6 inches, and some tow sizes are reduced.

- Date: 2023-08-28 · published 2023-08-28T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: logistics · region US · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/12855-will-it-be-deja-vu-on-the-lower-mississippi-river-this-fall
- Commodities: [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Barge Freight (St. Louis)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BARGE.md)

## Why it matters

Reduced drafts and tow sizes raise per-ton freight costs, with barge bids rising to 775-850% of tariff. Higher freight weakens basis for interior grain and may limit export flows during harvest.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: bearish ▼
- CORN: bearish ▼
- BARGE: bullish ▲

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| BARGE | 2023-08-29 | 1 | +48.0% | 2.6 | On Aug 28 St. Louis gauge was below zero and forecast to fall to -3.3 ft, with draft and tow-size restrictions cutting barge capacity, which supports a sharp jump in St. Louis freight. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SOY | 2024-10-16 | [As Harvest Ramps Up, the Lower Mississippi River Is Falling Again](https://feedsoft.ai/events/16504-as-harvest-ramps-up-the-lower-mississippi-river-is-falling-again.md) | +0.1% | +1.3% |
| SOY | 2024-09-10 | [Lower Mississippi River Water Levels Falling Just as Fall Harvest Begins](https://feedsoft.ai/events/16510-lower-mississippi-river-water-levels-falling-just-as-fall-harvest-begins.md) | +0.5% | +3.4% |
| SOY | 2017-01-03 | [Lower Mississippi River closure \| GAC](https://feedsoft.ai/events/73172-lower-mississippi-river-closure-gac.md) | 0.0% | +2.8% |
| SOY | 2022-10-30 | [The Mississippi River is facing low water levels. It could make inflation worse : NPR](https://feedsoft.ai/events/39335-the-mississippi-river-is-facing-low-water-levels-it-could-make-inflation-worse.md) | +4.6% | +5.0% |
| SOY | 2023-08-30 | [Low Mississippi River level will challenge grain movement again this harvest](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12853-low-mississippi-river-level-will-challenge-grain-movement-again-this-harvest.md) | -1.6% | -5.7% |
| CORN | 2024-10-16 | [As Harvest Ramps Up, the Lower Mississippi River Is Falling Again](https://feedsoft.ai/events/16504-as-harvest-ramps-up-the-lower-mississippi-river-is-falling-again.md) | +2.5% | +3.9% |
| CORN | 2022-09-29 | [Low water on the Mississippi River impacting barge traffic \| AP News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/16679-low-water-on-the-mississippi-river-impacting-barge-traffic-ap-news.md) | +1.7% | +4.0% |
| CORN | 2024-09-10 | [Lower Mississippi River Water Levels Falling Just as Fall Harvest Begins](https://feedsoft.ai/events/16510-lower-mississippi-river-water-levels-falling-just-as-fall-harvest-begins.md) | +4.0% | +5.3% |

## Sources

- dtnpf.com: https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/blogs/market-matters-blog/blog-post/2023/08/28/will-deja-vu-lower-mississippi-river
- dtnpf.com: https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/columns/cash-market-moves/article/2023/08/28/will-deja-vu-lower-mississippi-river

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.