# Oil could plummet to the $60s if a recession hits, Citi speculates

> Citi said oil, currently near $100 a barrel, could fall to the $60s by the end of 2022 if a recession takes hold. The bank expects demand declines to create surpluses that push prices down until supply is cut.

- Date: 2022-07-05 · published 2022-07-05T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: macro · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/12618-oil-could-plummet-to-the-60s-if-a-recession-hits-citi-speculates
- Commodities: [Crude Oil (WTI)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WTI.md), [Crude Oil (Brent)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BRENT.md)

## Why it matters

A forecast of sharply lower crude prices in a recession scenario signals downside risk to energy and freight costs, though it is a scenario rather than a realized supply or demand change.

## Read by commodity

- WTI: bearish ▼
- BRENT: bearish ▼

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WTI | 2022-07-05 | 1 | -5.7% | -3.3 | Citi's call that oil could drop to the $60s in a recession was a bearish sentiment catalyst on the day. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WTI | 2018-12-24 | [Plunging oil prices show the market is worried about 2019 recession](https://feedsoft.ai/events/8701-plunging-oil-prices-show-the-market-is-worried-about-2019-recession.md) | -0.5% | +15.7% |
| WTI | 2022-07-06 | [Oil’s Current Plunge: Goodbye Inflation Trade, Hello Recession](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12614-oil-s-current-plunge-goodbye-inflation-trade-hello-recession.md) | -3.8% | -4.6% |
| WTI | 2022-07-01 | [Oil prices fall due to recession worries](https://feedsoft.ai/events/40409-oil-prices-fall-due-to-recession-worries.md) | -0.9% | -6.2% |
| WTI | 2025-04-04 | [Oil falls to near 4-year low amid recession fears, OPEC+ production hikes](https://feedsoft.ai/events/7295-oil-falls-to-near-4-year-low-amid-recession-fears-opec-production-hikes.md) | -10.2% | -12.0% |
| WTI | 2022-12-05 | [Recession fears spur wheat cuts – The Seam](https://feedsoft.ai/events/6647-recession-fears-spur-wheat-cuts-the-seam.md) | -11.1% | -3.8% |
| BRENT | 2018-12-24 | [Plunging oil prices show the market is worried about 2019 recession](https://feedsoft.ai/events/8701-plunging-oil-prices-show-the-market-is-worried-about-2019-recession.md) | -1.3% | +15.8% |
| BRENT | 2022-07-06 | [Oil’s Current Plunge: Goodbye Inflation Trade, Hello Recession](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12614-oil-s-current-plunge-goodbye-inflation-trade-hello-recession.md) | -3.2% | -2.9% |
| BRENT | 2022-07-01 | [Oil prices fall due to recession worries](https://feedsoft.ai/events/40409-oil-prices-fall-due-to-recession-worries.md) | -7.1% | -7.6% |

## Sources

- cnbc.com: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/05/oil-could-plummet-to-the-60s-if-a-recession-hits-citi-speculates.html

---
Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.