# What's behind the USD's bullish break out? | MUFG EMEA

> The dollar's breakout was driven by a hotter-than-expected March US CPI report, which pushed back expectations for the first Fed rate cut to July or September. Analysts note the ECB's planned June cut creates policy divergence that favors the dollar, while Israel-Iran tensions could add safe-haven demand.

- Date: 2024-04-16 · published 2024-04-16T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: macro · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/12556-what-s-behind-the-usd-s-bullish-break-out-mufg-emea
- Commodities: [US Dollar (Broad)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DXY.md), [Euro (USD per EUR)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/EURUSD.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md)

## Why it matters

Policy divergence supporting the dollar tends to pressure dollar-priced grain and meal, and a firmer dollar raises import costs for emerging-market feed buyers.

## Read by commodity

- DXY: bullish ▲
- SOY: bearish ▼
- CORN: bearish ▼
- EURUSD: bearish ▼

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| DXY | 2024-04-16 | 5 | +2.0% | 2.9 | Attributes the dollar breakout to hot CPI pushing back Fed cuts, ECB June cut divergence, and Middle East safe-haven demand. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| DXY | 2017-09-28 | [What’s behind the rand selloff? - Moneyweb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/69234-what-s-behind-the-rand-selloff-moneyweb.md) | +0.2% | +1.4% |
| DXY | 2016-11-18 | [Euro record losing streak: what's behind the drop in the single currency?](https://feedsoft.ai/events/74036-euro-record-losing-streak-what-s-behind-the-drop-in-the-single-currency.md) | +1.0% | +1.3% |
| DXY | 2022-05-02 | [What is behind plunging Korean won? - The Korea Times](https://feedsoft.ai/events/41635-what-is-behind-plunging-korean-won-the-korea-times.md) | +0.3% | -1.0% |
| DXY | 2023-06-30 | [Breakouts in US bond markets – a tailwind for the USD](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35677-breakouts-in-us-bond-markets-a-tailwind-for-the-usd.md) | -0.4% | -1.5% |
| DXY | 2022-09-28 | [Why is the US dollar so strong, and what does it mean?](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10320-why-is-the-us-dollar-so-strong-and-what-does-it-mean.md) | -1.8% | -1.5% |
| EURUSD | 2016-11-18 | [Euro record losing streak: what's behind the drop in the single currency?](https://feedsoft.ai/events/74036-euro-record-losing-streak-what-s-behind-the-drop-in-the-single-currency.md) | -0.6% | -1.9% |
| EURUSD | 2021-05-27 | [EUR/USD: Recent shifts in ECB and Fed rhetoric are bearish for the euro - MUFG - Forex Crunch](https://feedsoft.ai/events/47298-eur-usd-recent-shifts-in-ecb-and-fed-rhetoric-are-bearish-for-the-euro-mufg.md) | -0.7% | -2.3% |
| EURUSD | 2024-11-12 | [USD: Dollar’s Trump-Fueled Rally Unites Wall Street on Bullish Bets - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/7558-usd-dollar-s-trump-fueled-rally-unites-wall-street-on-bullish-bets-bloomberg.md) | -1.2% | -1.8% |

## Sources

- mufgemea.com: https://www.mufgemea.com/media/whats-behind-the-usd-s-bullish-break-out/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.