# Brazilian Real: Politics drive correction against US Dollar – Commerzbank

> Commerzbank analyst Michael Pfister expects the Brazilian real's strong run to pause, with higher USD/BRL levels in coming months as fiscal expansion, renewed inflation and a polarized election weigh on sentiment. He forecasts USD/BRL at 4.80 by end-2027.

- Date: 2026-06-02 · published 2026-06-02T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: macro · region Brazil · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/12077-brazilian-real-politics-drive-correction-against-us-dollar-commerzbank
- Commodities: [Brazilian Real (BRL per USD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/USDBRL.md), [Soybean Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBM.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md)

## Why it matters

An expected weaker real would make Brazilian soybean, corn and meal exports cheaper on world markets, adding competitive supply pressure against US origin feed ingredients.

## Read by commodity

- SBM: bearish ▼
- SOY: bearish ▼
- USDBRL: bullish ▲

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| USDBRL | 2026-06-09 | 5 | +3.3% | 3.1 | Commerzbank flagged fiscal expansion, renewed inflation and election polarization as drivers of a real correction, which fits the sentiment-driven USD/BRL rise, though it was published a week before the window's end and is only a forecast. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| USDBRL | 2018-06-06 | [Brazilian currency drops against the US dollar \| AP News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5378-brazilian-currency-drops-against-the-us-dollar-ap-news.md) | -2.7% | +2.7% |
| USDBRL | 2024-11-29 | [What is happening to BRL as the Brazilian Real collapses against the US Dollar](https://feedsoft.ai/events/27617-what-is-happening-to-brl-as-the-brazilian-real-collapses-against-the-us-dollar.md) | +1.7% | +5.6% |
| USDBRL | 2017-05-18 | [Dollar Rebounds, Brazilian Real Plunges as Politics Dominates - WSJ](https://feedsoft.ai/events/4356-dollar-rebounds-brazilian-real-plunges-as-politics-dominates-wsj.md) | +5.6% | +5.6% |
| USDBRL | 2026-10-26 | [Euro falls against dollar; Brazilian real tumbles after Lula election win](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17282-euro-falls-against-dollar-brazilian-real-tumbles-after-lula-election-win.md) | +7.6% | — |
| USDBRL | 2020-01-31 | [Coronavirus and current account deficit hit the Brazilian Real against the dollar — MercoPress](https://feedsoft.ai/events/55285-coronavirus-and-current-account-deficit-hit-the-brazilian-real-against-the.md) | +0.2% | +5.4% |
| SBM | 2024-11-29 | [What is happening to BRL as the Brazilian Real collapses against the US Dollar](https://feedsoft.ai/events/27617-what-is-happening-to-brl-as-the-brazilian-real-collapses-against-the-us-dollar.md) | -1.3% | +2.2% |
| SBM | 2020-01-31 | [Coronavirus and current account deficit hit the Brazilian Real against the dollar — MercoPress](https://feedsoft.ai/events/55285-coronavirus-and-current-account-deficit-hit-the-brazilian-real-against-the.md) | -1.1% | +2.4% |
| SBM | 2024-08-05 | [Brazilian real depreciation stirs economic concerns](https://feedsoft.ai/events/11941-brazilian-real-depreciation-stirs-economic-concerns.md) | -7.8% | -11.4% |

## Sources

- fxstreet.com: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brazilian-real-politics-drive-correction-against-us-dollar-commerzbank-202606021214

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.