# USDA WASDE report

> Monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, 12:00 ET. Updates US and world balance sheets and season-average price projections. Surprises: US corn ending stocks 2,222 mil bu vs prior 1,342 (+65.6%, bearish); US soybean ending stocks 335 mil bu vs prior 210 (+59.5%, bearish); US corn season-avg farm price 4.8 $/bu vs prior 6.6 (-27.3%, bearish); US soybean meal price 365 $/st vs prior 465 (-21.5%, bearish); World soybean ending stocks 122.5 mmt vs prior 100.29 (+22.1%, bearish); US soybean season-avg farm price 12.1 $/bu vs prior 14.3 (-15.4%, bearish); US corn exports 2,100 mil bu vs prior 1,850 (+13.5%, bullish); US soybean oil price 58 ¢/lb vs prior 64 (-9.4%, bearish); US soybean meal exports 14,800 k st vs prior 13,700 (+8.0%, bullish); US wheat ending stocks 556 mil bu vs prior 598 (-7.0%, bullish); US wheat exports 725 mil bu vs prior 775 (-6.5%, bearish); World corn ending stocks 312.9 mmt vs prior 295.35 (+5.9%, bearish).

- Date: 2023-05-12 · published 2023-05-12T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region US
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/1205-usda-wasde-report-2023-05-12
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Soybean Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBM.md), [Soybean Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBO.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Wheat (HRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/KWHEAT.md), [Oats](https://feedsoft.ai/c/OATS.md), [Sorghum](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SORGHUM.md), [Barley](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BARLEY.md), [Live Cattle](https://feedsoft.ai/c/LCATTLE.md), [Lean Hogs](https://feedsoft.ai/c/HOGS.md), [Chicken](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CHICKEN.md)

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2023-05-14 | 1 | -3.9% | -5.7 | May 12 WASDE showed a huge bearish surprise, with 2023/24 US corn ending stocks up 65% from the prior figure and a much lower season-average price, which likely triggered the sharp one-day selloff. |
| CORN | 2023-05-18 | 5 | -8.8% | -3.2 | May 12 WASDE showed a large bearish surprise in 2023/24 US corn ending stocks (2,222 vs 1,342 mil bu) and a sharply lower season-average price, triggering the selloff. |
| SBO | 2023-05-15 | 1 | -5.3% | -4.3 | The May 12 WASDE (first 2023/24 balance sheets) was bearish across the complex, with higher soybean and corn ending stocks and a sharply lower projected soybean oil price (58 vs 64 c/lb), which plausibly triggered the heavy sell-off in soybean oil on the next trading day (May 15). |
| SBO | 2023-05-15 | 5 | -9.3% | -3.2 | The May 12 WASDE raised US and world soybean stocks and cut the projected soybean oil price from 64 to 58 cents/lb, a bearish supply and price shock that points directly at the soyoil drop. |
| SOY | 2023-05-18 | 5 | -8.9% | -2.8 | May 12 WASDE showed far larger than expected 2023/24 US soybean ending stocks (335 vs 210 mil bu) and lower price projections, a bearish supply shock that started the selloff. |
| CORN | 2023-05-25 | 5 | +8.2% | 3.0 | The May 12 WASDE showed far larger projected 2023/24 US corn ending stocks and a lower farm price, a bearish supply shock that set the downward tone for the following two weeks. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2020-11-10 | [USDA WASDE report](https://feedsoft.ai/events/1180-usda-wasde-report-2020-11-10.md) | +9.7% | +8.7% |
| CORN | 2018-08-10 | [USDA WASDE report](https://feedsoft.ai/events/1154-usda-wasde-report-2018-08-10.md) | -7.5% | -9.1% |
| CORN | 2018-03-08 | [USDA WASDE report](https://feedsoft.ai/events/1149-usda-wasde-report-2018-03-08.md) | +2.4% | +5.3% |
| CORN | 2026-07-10 | [USDA WASDE report](https://feedsoft.ai/events/1242-usda-wasde-report-2026-07-10.md) | +0.6% | +1.4% |
| CORN | 2016-06-10 | [USDA WASDE report](https://feedsoft.ai/events/1128-usda-wasde-report-2016-06-10.md) | +1.5% | -12.5% |
| SOY | 2018-03-08 | [USDA WASDE report](https://feedsoft.ai/events/1149-usda-wasde-report-2018-03-08.md) | -2.5% | -2.3% |
| SOY | 2020-11-10 | [USDA WASDE report](https://feedsoft.ai/events/1180-usda-wasde-report-2020-11-10.md) | +4.4% | +3.7% |
| SOY | 2018-08-10 | [USDA WASDE report](https://feedsoft.ai/events/1154-usda-wasde-report-2018-08-10.md) | -0.3% | -6.3% |

## Sources

- USDA WAOB: https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.