# USDA lowers US rice export forecast amid rising global competition | Feed & Grain

> USDA cut its 2025/26 all-rice export forecast by 2 million cwt to 87 million, with long-grain exports reduced by 3 million cwt. Ending stocks were raised by 1 million cwt to 50.3 million, while medium- and short-grain exports rose on Japanese demand.

- Date: 2026-02-13 · published 2026-02-13T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region US · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/12013-usda-lowers-us-rice-export-forecast-amid-rising-global-competition-feed-and
- Commodities: [Rough Rice](https://feedsoft.ai/c/RICE.md)

## Why it matters

Lower exports and higher ending stocks add to the domestic surplus and weigh on U.S. rough rice prices. Competition from Brazil, Peru and Pakistan is taking long-grain share.

## Read by commodity

- RICE: bearish ▼

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| RICE | 2026-02-18 | 5 | -8.5% | -3.1 | USDA's cut to the US export forecast and higher ending stocks add bearish supply/demand fundamentals for US rice, released days before the decline. |
| RICE | 2026-02-23 | 5 | -9.4% | -3.4 | USDA's lower long-grain export forecast and higher ending stocks add bearish fundamentals for US rough rice. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| RICE | 2024-10-14 | [USDA adjusts global grain production forecasts \| Feed & Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/27918-usda-adjusts-global-grain-production-forecasts-feed-and-grain.md) | +0.0% | -4.2% |
| RICE | 2023-04-20 | [Global Market Prospects for U.S. Long-Grain Rice for the Upcoming Marketing Year](https://feedsoft.ai/events/36491-global-market-prospects-for-u-s-long-grain-rice-for-the-upcoming-marketing-year.md) | -1.1% | +2.3% |
| RICE | 2025-06-09 | [Episode 47 Global Market Prospects for U.S. Long-grain Rice for the Upcoming Market Year](https://feedsoft.ai/events/24290-episode-47-global-market-prospects-for-u-s-long-grain-rice-for-the-upcoming.md) | +0.9% | -7.1% |
| RICE | 2024-11-04 | [India: Grain and Feed Update \| USDA Foreign Agricultural Service](https://feedsoft.ai/events/27369-india-grain-and-feed-update-usda-foreign-agricultural-service.md) | -3.1% | +3.1% |
| RICE | 2024-09-24 | [Mexico: Grain and Feed Update \| USDA Foreign Agricultural Service](https://feedsoft.ai/events/28275-mexico-grain-and-feed-update-usda-foreign-agricultural-service.md) | -1.6% | -2.9% |

## Sources

- feedandgrain.com: https://www.feedandgrain.com/grain-supply-chain/news/15817216/usda-lowers-us-rice-export-forecast-amid-rising-global-competition

---
Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.